The 2026 LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference sent a strong bullish signal: despite short-term headwinds for gold and silver stemming from the energy crisis, peRSIstent inflation and surging bond yields, attendees remain highly confident about the long-term outlook for precious metals.
Surveys show delegates expect gold to trade near $5,013.30 per ounce over the next 12 months, representing an approximate 20% gain from current levels. Silver is projected to hit $94.70 per ounce, implying upside of more than 54% from the current price.
Spot gold was last quoted at $4,163.30 per ounce, up 0.57% for the day; spot silver stood at $61.23 per ounce, gaining 0.50%.
Notably, the conference forecast from last year put gold at $4,980.30 per ounce, which failed to materialize. This means the optimistic projections from this survey still need to stand up to real-world market tests.
Bullish Gold Thesis Gains Traction
Gold has faced pressure so far this year, mainly because the conflict between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures and forcing central banks to maintain tight monetary stances.
Meanwhile, expectations for further rate hikes have lifted long-term bond yields to roughly 20-year highs, further increASIng the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
However, attendees pointed out that factors traditionally regarded as bearish for gold have become more complex today. While higher bond yields erode gold’s appeal, rising sovereign debt and deteriorating fiscal conditions are pushing up term premiums and prompting markets to reassess the reliability of government debt as a long-term safe-haven asset.
Vikram Dhawan, Commodities Head and Fund Manager at Nippon India Mutual Fund, stated during a panel discussion that gold is sending a signal to the market: global debt may be approaching an inflection point, and the supply of fiat currency may be outpacing demand.
Central Bank Gold Purchases Serve as Key Support
Another major theme at the conference was central bank demand. A growing number of reserve managers no longer view gold merely as a hedge against inflation or geopolitical risks, but integrate it into a broader reserve allocation framework.
The conference cited the latest reserve management survey from UBS Asset Management, which showed 65% of respondents named “diveRSIfication” as the primary reason for holding gold. Gold is also one of the main assets that central banks plan to keep adding to their reserves over the next 12 months.
Multiple central bank officials emphASIzed that gold’s unique trait is that it “is not a liability of any party.”
Attendees noted that geopolitical fragmentation, sanction risks and concerns over sovereign credit risk are boosting the attractiveness of holding an asset free from counterparty risk and default risk.
Analysts also said peRSIstent fiscal deficits and rising government debt continue to underpin the so-called “debasement trade”, where investors seek to preserve purchASIng power against the long-term depreciation of fiat currencies.
Silver Projections Are Even More Aggressive
Compared with gold, delegates held more aggressive expectations for silver. The survey projected silver prices will climb to $94.70 per ounce over the next 12 months, an increase of over 54% from current levels.
Spot silver is currently at $61.23. Although it has retreated markedly from this year’s high, it remains above the $59.10 forecast offered at the 2025 conference.
While elevated prices are forcing industrial users to cut silver consumption wherever possible, conference participants believe silver’s structural demand remains solid. PV manufacturers are reducing silver usage to control costs, yet attendees noted silver cannot be fully replaced in solar technology.
At the same time, continued growth in AI infrastructure, electric vehicles and broader electrification trends is expected to deliver long-term demand support for both silver and gold. Physical investment demand also remains resilient. Traders reported tight inventories and robust buying interest earlier this year that struggled to meet market demand.
High Volatility Is Here to Stay
Overall, the core message from the conference is that the precious metals market will continue to face high volatility. Gold and silver must compete against high interest rates and elevated bond yields, yet structural demand from central bank allocations, sovereign debt worries, geopolitical uncertainty and expanding industrial consumption is expected to provide long-term price support.
From a market logic perspective, if global debt pressures keep rising and the trend of central bank reserve diveRSIfication continues, gold’s allocation value as a credit-risk-free asset may become more prominent. Silver, driven by both financial and industrial attributes, may see greater volatility yet stronger upside leverage.