Spot gold traded within a $4100–$4150 range during last night's US session, eventually closing at $4133.63/oz, up 0.55%; spot silver closed at $59.133/oz, down 1.02%.
During Friday's ASIan session, spot gold opened at $4133.93/oz, dipped to an early low of $4130.82/oz, then rallied to a high of $4179.75/oz in morning trade. At press time, gold trades near $4175/oz, up 1.01% on the day.
The US Dollar Index halted its rally and turned lower overnight, edging toward the 102 level and hitting a low of 102.03 before closing at 102.12, down 0.15%. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell 1 bASIs point to 4.76%; the 10-year yield dropped 6.1 bASIs points to 5.225%; the 30-year yield declined 7.2 bASIs points to 5.601%.
International oil prices rose across the board overnight amid market volatility driven by the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. WTI crude closed at $91.40/bbl, up 2.86%; Brent crude settled at $104.14/bbl, rising 3.31%. US natural gas CFD snapped a four-day winning streak to close at $3.128 per MMBtu, down 2.827%.
The three major US stock indexes closed mixed overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 52.61 points, or 0.10%, to 51232.48; the S&P 500 fell 36.35 points, or 0.47%, to 7765.42; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 345.35 points, or 1.25%, to 27193.34.
European stock markets closed broadly lower. At the close, Germany's DAX30 fell 1.21% to 24801.36; the UK FTSE 100 dropped 0.22% to 10435.34; France's CAC40 declined 0.51% to 7729.69; Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.91% to 6124.35; Spain's IBEX35 lost 1.02% to 18923.11; Italy's FTSE MIB shed 1.39% to 49278.50.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, fell by 5.702 tonnes from the previous session to 1055.411 tonnes. Holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, rose by 29.49 tonnes to 15341.06 tonnes.
Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au(T+D) closed up 0.12% at 893.04 yuan/g overnight; Ag(T+D) closed down 0.55% at 14372.0 yuan/kg. This morning, Au(T+D) opened 0.41% higher at 895.66 yuan/g, while Ag(T+D) opened up 0.09% at 14465.0 yuan/kg.
The central parity rates of the RMB against major currencies today: USD/CNY at 6.7330, down 37 pips (RMB appreciation); EUR/CNY at 7.5323, down 81 pips; HKD/CNY at 0.85798, down 5.1 pips; GBP/CNY at 8.8872, down 100 pips; AUD/CNY at 4.6746, down 106 pips; CAD/CNY at 4.7204, down 5 pips; 100JPY/CNY at 4.2571, down 71 pips; CNY/RUB at 12.6873, down 480 pips; NZD/CNY at 3.7634, down 59 pips; CNY/MYR at 0.60836, up 17.8 pips; CHF/CNY at 8.0821, down 28 pips; SGD/CNY at 5.2460, down 150 pips.
Fresh data released overnight showed US August wholesale sales rose 1.8% MoM, with the prior reading revised from 0.80% to 1%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3 came in at 197,000, below the forecast of 200,000, while the prior figure was revised from 197,000 to 199,000. Continuing claims rose by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.716 million.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, indicating the labor market remains stable despite a sharp slowdown in job growth in September. Initial claims have held near 57-year lows for four consecutive weeks, consistent with what economists describe as a "low hiring, low layoff" labor market environment.
Minutes from the ECB meeting overnight showed the central bank raised rates by 25 bASIs points at its September 9–10 meeting. All members agreed inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and it is prudent to openly acknowledge high uncertainty. It is particularly important to avoid providing any forward guidance on the future rate path, and continued vigilance is essential.
The ECB has raised rates twice this year. Eurozone consumer prices rose 3.8% YoY in September, accelerating further from 3.2% in August, nearly double the ECB's 2% target. Markets expect the ECB to hold rates steady at its October meeting but deliver another 25-bASIs-point hike in December, lifting the deposit facility rate from the current 2.50% to 2.75%.
Bank of England Governor Bailey warned that weak economic growth and a series of severe shocks are eroding governments' fiscal capacity to respond. Should the economy slip back into recession, governments may lack the ability to take effective measures. If markets develop doubts about the fiscal path, bond yields will rise further, creating a negative feedback loop.
Fed Governor Waller stated that further rate hikes may still be needed to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, but emphASIzed the pace of tightening has some "flexibility." He noted that rate hikes do not need to occur at consecutive meetings but should be completed within a reasonable timeframe. This leaves room for the Fed to pause at its upcoming October policy meeting.
New research from the New York Fed estimates that absent Trump-era tariffs, prices of numerous everyday consumer goods in the US would have fallen by nearly 1%, but the duties instead pushed them up by about 2.9 percentage points. Nearly 90% of tariff costs are borne domestically, and even "Made in America" goods were forced to raise prices.
On international affairs, according to Iranian reports, Iran's Foreign Minister said the negotiation process is ongoing and both sides are exchanging messages through intermediaries. "We have put forward a proposal called the 'seven-day plan' and heard the US response. We are now studying the US position and expect to respond within the coming days."
Reports say three US aircraft carriers are expected to converge on the Middle East in the coming weeks, and the US government has drawn up plans to strike Iranian missile, drone and energy facilities. However, Trump said discussions between the US and Iran are still making progress, and he does not plan to launch attacks before the November midterm elections.
On the Russia-Ukraine situation, Zelensky said multiple locations across Ukraine continue to come under attack, leaving casualties. Ukrainian forces said they struck an oil refinery in Omsk, Russia. Reports said US Secretary of State Rubio hopes the escalation in risk will bring both sides to the negotiating table. The US and Russia are holding talks with investors in the Nord Stream project on restoring natural gas supplies to Europe.
From the daily gold chart, gold consolidated in the recent lowside range overnight. Bullish momentum has increased today, with prices now above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, though still trading below the 4200 level. On daily indicators, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages remain in a bearish alignment. The MACD negative histogram is starting to shrink, and the RSI has turned higher to around the 44 level.
On the 1-hour gold chart, the BOLLinger Bands have opened up, with gold oscillating near the upper band. The short-term EMA5 and EMA10 have turned bullish upward. The MACD positive histogram continues to expand, and the RSI has risen toward the overbought threshold near 70. For intraday trading, expect gold to oscillate within the $4130–$4200 range. A breakout to the upside targets $4208–$4215 or near $4225; a downside breakout targets $4120–$4110 or near $4103.
Key economic data and events to watch today:
15:00 Switzerland September Consumer Confidence Index
20:30 Canada September Employment Change
22:00 US October 1-year Inflation Expectations Prelim
22:00 US October UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim
01:00 (next day) US Baker Hughes Rig Count for the week ending October 9
04:00 (next day) Fed's Collins delivers speech
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