Precious metals research firm Heraeus says China’s gold imports may reach roughly 1,700 tonnes in 2026, doubling from last year and marking the highest level since 2020. Meanwhile, silver prices are approaching a key test level, and performance near $60 per ounce will likely determine its short-term trajectory.
China’s Gold Imports Have Already Surpassed Last Year’s Full-Year Total
In its latest report, Heraeus stated China imported 142 tonnes of gold in August, bringing total imports for the first eight months of this year to 1,141 tonnes. This represents a sharp 72% jump from 663 tonnes in the same period last year and exceeds the full-year 2025 total of 940 tonnes. Analysts noted that robust imports peRSIst despite gold trading at historic highs, pointing to sustained investment demand, while Chinese jewellery demand remains relatively weak.
Heraeus also emphASIsed these non-official sector gold imports are separate from gold purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). China’s central bank added another 20 tonnes to its official reserves in August. If the current pace continues through the end of 2026, China’s total gold imports will approach 1,700 tonnes, hitting the highest level of this decade.
Australian Output Rises Steadily
On the supply side, Australia’s gold mine production kept rising in the 2025-26 fiscal year. Heraeus said Australia produced 303 tonnes of gold by the end of the fiscal year ending in June, broadly matching its long-run annual output of around 300 tonnes. Most mines recorded improved output in the June quarter, and some small-scale producers started operations.
The firm noted Australia’s 303 tonnes accounts for roughly 8% of global mined gold supply. Worldwide mined gold output stood at 3,822 tonnes in 2025.
Indonesia Moves to Bring "Household Gold" into the Financial System
Heraeus also mentioned Indonesia is rolling out an incentive programme to encourage privately held physical gold to enter the formal financial system. The government estimates households hold around 1,800 tonnes of gold outside formal investment channels and has tasked state-owned institutions to channel roughly 20% of that stock, or about 360 tonnes, into gold bar banking and financial products.
The programme aims to convert privately owned physical gold into deposits, collateral and other financial assets to deepen the domestic gold bar market and potentially boost the circulation of household wealth within the financial system.
Indian Demand Hit by Monsoon Weakness
On the demand side, Heraeus warned a weak monsoon may weigh on rural gold demand during this year’s festival and wedding season. Rural consumption makes up more than half of India’s total gold demand. By late September, India’s monsoon rainfall was about 15% below the long-term average, which could create downside risks for gold demand by hurting crop yields and rural incomes.
Citing historical analysis from the World Gold Council (WGC), Heraeus said gold demand typically rises by 0.2% for every 1% that rainfall exceeds the average. This means the rainfall shortfall this year may create mild headwinds. India’s total gold demand reached 768 tonnes in 2025, accounting for roughly 15% of global demand.
Gold Pulls Back, Silver Watches the $60 Level
Spot gold continued testing intraday lows during early North American trading, last quoted at $4142.30 per ounce, down 3.33% on the day.
For silver, Heraeus said renewed US dollar strength has pushed silver prices to a critical turning point. Silver broke below $65 per ounce last week as the US Dollar Index climbed back above 101.0, near its yearly high.
Analysts said if silver can rebound back toward $70 per ounce amid a stronger US dollar, hawkish Fed rhetoric and rising US Treasury yields, it may confirm a potential bottoming process. However, another break below $60 per ounce would suggest the downtrend of lower highs and lower lows established since the late January peak remains intact.
US Treasury Yields and Crude Oil Also Weigh on Markets
Heraeus also noted the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.22% and the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield rose to 2.8%, showing the Fed’s 25-bASIs-point rate hike in September failed to reassure markets.
The institution believes the simultaneous rise in real and nominal yields is especially important for precious metals. It indicates the US Treasury sell-off is not driven solely by rising inflation expectations; investors are also demanding higher real returns, reflecting market expectations that monetary policy will stay restrictive for longer.
At the same time, Brent crude remains hovering near $100 per barrel. Although the United States and Iran have resumed negotiations, Heraeus believes an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz does not appear imminent in the short term.
India’s Silver Imports Rebound in August
In terms of physical silver flows, India’s silver imports rebounded sharply in August after months of weakness. Heraeus said India imported 15.5 million ounces of silver in August, the first monthly reading above 10 million ounces since February and up 36% from the 11.4 million ounces imported in August 2025.
Still, India’s silver imports remain weak on a full-year bASIs. Estimated imports from January to August stood at 75.6 million ounces, down 24% from 99.1 million ounces in the same period last year. Heraeus said the exceptionally low import volumes in prior months partly stemmed from new licensing requirements introduced in May that complicated import procedures, alongside high silver prices suppressing demand. The August rebound shows physical inflows are starting to normalise, though year-to-date imports remain markedly lower than last year.
As of Monday morning, silver stabilised slightly after falling below $61 per ounce. Spot silver was last quoted at $61.302 per ounce, down 4.67% for the session.