On Monday, gold maintained a weak pattern, with spot gold oscillating within the range of $4120.00 - $4170.00 per ounce. Although the stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields made it hard for gold to build upward momentum, bulls and bears were evenly matched with mild overall volatility and no one-sided trend. It finally closed at $4140.19 per ounce, printing a daily doji candlestick, reflecting peRSIstent market wait-and-see sentiment. Gold found support near $4100.00 per ounce on Tuesday and recouped losses after hitting a two-month low. The key event this week is the release of the September Fed meeting minutes at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. Markets seek clues on FOMC members’ stance for further rate hikes, which will act as a critical catalyst for gold’s short-term movement. Before press time, spot gold rebounded to around $4160.85 per ounce, suggesting a temporary bottom may have formed.

Data released on Monday showed US service sector activity slowed in September. Robust domestic demand tightened supply chains and lifted corporate input costs, indicating inflation may remain elevated next year. The US September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.9 from August’s 55.4. A reading above 50 signals expansion in the service sector, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity. Despite the decline, the figure remains consistent with strong Q3 economic growth, mainly driven by solid domestic demand, especially consumer spending and corporate investment in artificial intelligence and related infrastructure. This data echoes manufacturing job growth from ISM released last week and backs economists’ view that the labour market stays steady even with modest September non-farm payroll gains.

The gold market is now trapped in a tug-of-war between short-term pressure and medium-to-long-term support. A strong US Dollar and high Treasury yields weigh directly on prices, while cooled expectations for a Fed rate hike in October lend positive support, which is not enough to reverse the trend. Analysts state that even if the US labour market continues to weaken, the Fed is still mainly focused on peRSIstent inflation rather than labour deterioration. The release of this week’s FOMC meeting minutes will be a pivotal trigger for short-term directional moves. In the medium and long run, structural factors including central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization will continue to underpin gold prices. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets price in a 78.4% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.

For the short-term gold outlook, the upside resistance for spot gold stands at $4350.00 per ounce, and downside support is at $4100.00 per ounce.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

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