Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair delivered remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium with distinctly hawkish signals. Markets repriced the odds of a September rate hike, and spot gold tumbled in response, hitting an intraday low of $4445.34 per ounce and closing at $4457.06 per ounce. The metal shed more than 3% in a single session, ending its three‑week winning streak. Gold opened lower on Monday and drifted further down. Heightened US‑Iran geopolitical tensions lifted crude‑oil prices and stoked inflation fears, reinforcing market expectations for a hawkish Fed stance. During ASIan trading hours, spot gold briefly broke below $4400.00 per ounce. Nevertheless, the US Dollar Index retreated from a two‑week high of 99.73 set last Friday, capping gold’s downside. At press time, spot gold had rebounded to $4448.05 per ounce. Price action suggests gold may enter a corrective rebound phase ahead, yet a swift return to a strong uptrend is unlikely in the near term.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated at last Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers “have a lot of work to do” should they lack confidence inflation will drift back toward the central bank’s 2% target. This represents his clearest signal to date that additional rate increases may be required. Warsh argued inflation remains too high, financial conditions are not restrictive enough, and the labour market meets full‑employment criteria, meaning price stability remains the Fed’s top priority. Interest‑rate futures show markets have boosted bets on a September hike following his speech. According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, the market‑implied probability of a September rate increase now stands at 61.9%, up from 41.4% one week ago. Attention has shifted to the Fed’s September policy meeting for further clues on the interest‑rate path.

On the geopolitical front, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported on Monday it had carried out retaliatory drone and ballistic‑missile strikes against US‑military targets at two airbases inside Jordan earlier that day. In a statement, the IRGC described the attack as a response to US‑Israeli airstrikes on Larak Island in Hormozgan Province, southern Iran, late Sunday. Iran’s military warned it will resolutely counter any further hostile military aggression and reiterated that all vessels must comply with its rules for transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Fresh US‑Iran military friction pushed oil prices higher at Monday’s open, with Brent crude climbing back above $90 per barrel in early ASIan trade. Over the weekend, US forces struck Iranian missile‑launch sites after reports emerged that Iran was preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Near‑term gold outlook: spot gold faces resistance at $4700.00 per ounce, while key downside support lies at $4300.00 per ounce.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

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