Following Fed Chair Warsh’s speech last Friday night, US Treasury yields and the US dollar moved higher, while spot gold and silver tumbled. Spot gold plunged $180 from its high of $4631.07 per ounce to a low of $4445.34 per ounce, closing at $4457.06 per ounce, down 3.14% on the day and 3.27% for the week. Spot silver hit a low of $66.043 per ounce and settled at $66.31 per ounce, down 4.18% on the day and 3.78% week‑on‑week.

Spot gold opened at $4427.52 per ounce in Monday’s ASIan session, reaching an intraday high of $4471.87 per ounce. Gold extended losses and briefly broke the $4400 threshold to a low of $4396.65 per ounce. At press time, gold is oscillating near $4412, with an intraday loss of roughly 1%.

After Warsh’s speech last Friday night, market expectations for a September rate hike grew stronger. The US Dollar Index surged to 99.72 and closed at 99.68, up 0.56% on the day and 0.85% for the week. Treasury yields climbed accordingly: the 2‑year US Treasury yield rose 11.6 bASIs points to 4.35%; the 10‑year yield gained 4.2 bASIs points to 4.722%; the 30‑year yield increased 1.3 bASIs points to 5.208%.

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz eased somewhat. Global crude oil benchmarks traded sideways last Friday night. WTI crude closed at $83.47 per barrel, down 0.16% and 3.59% for the week. Brent crude finished at $88.32 per barrel, down 0.34% on the day and 6.03% week‑on‑week. US natural gas CFD settled at $2.876 per million British thermal units, down 0.964% on the day yet up 2.861% for the week.

All three major US stock indices closed lower on Friday night. The Dow Jones Index fell 10.10 points or 0.02% to 53559.34. The S&P 500 dropped 19.52 points or 0.25% to 7711.47. The Nasdaq Index shed 138.93 points or 0.52% to 26402.42.

Major European equity indices closed higher. The German DAX30 rose 0.80% to 26567.24; UK FTSE 100 gained 0.29% to 10823.81; French CAC40 advanced 0.98% to 8401.18; Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.98% to 6487.45; Spanish IBEX35 rose 0.83% to 20046.08; Italian FTSE MIB increased 0.69% to 52624.00.

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Gold T+D closed down 2.64% at 964.55 yuan per gram last Friday night, while Silver T+D fell 3.89% to 16187.0 yuan per kilogram. Early‑Monday trading saw Gold T+D open 2.69% lower at 964.0 yuan per gram, and Silver T+D opened 3.95% lower at 16177.0 yuan per kilogram.

Last Friday, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, decreased by 4.279 tonnes to 1042.357 tonnes. Holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world’s largest silver ETF, rose by 14.06 tonnes to 15359.92 tonnes.

Today’s FX market central parity rates: USD‑CNY 6.7828 (+17 pips, CNY depreciation); EUR‑CNY 7.8344 (-339 pips); HKD‑CNY 0.8651 (+1.2 pips); GBP‑CNY 9.1530 (-289 pips); AUD‑CNY 4.8410 (-140 pips); CAD‑CNY 4.8600 (-116 pips); 100JPY‑CNY 4.2285 (-143 pips); CNY‑RUB 12.7239 (-651 pips); NZD‑CNY 3.9994 (-214 pips); CNY‑MYR 0.59533 (-10.7 pips); CHF‑CNY 8.3603 (-453 pips); SGD‑CNY 5.3040 (-102 pips).

Key data released Friday night: US 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (non‑seasonally adjusted) ‑79,000 (forecast 183,000, prior ‑862,000); US August Final 1‑Year Inflation Expectations 4% (forecast 4.40%, prior 4.30%); US August Final UniveRSIty of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 51.7 (forecast 51, prior 51); US August Chicago PMI 47.1 (forecast 57.9, prior 57.6).

Fed Chair Warsh delivered his most‑anticipated public speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium on Friday night. Warsh stated that although summer PCE and CPI prints have come in better‑than‑expected, they have not convinced him that underlying inflation has improved meaningfully. “We need to be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward target; otherwise we still have work to do.” He noted current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates remain the Fed’s primary policy tool.

Warsh expressed scepticism over forward guidance and declined to lay out a full interest‑rate framework. Still, he acknowledged current rate levels do not suppress economic activity. Analysts believe his remarks substantially raise the odds of another Fed rate hike, which could put him at odds with President Trump, who has long advocated rate cuts.

During Warsh’s speech, short‑dated US Treasuries were sold off while long‑dated bonds advanced. Both moves signal market expectations for higher short‑term policy rates. Markets interpreted Warsh’s remarks as hawkish. The CME FedWatch Tool prices a 60% probability of a September hike and over 90% probability for a hike before December.

Former Fed Vice‑Chairman Cohen commented that Warsh’s speech has shifted the baseline: now the Fed will hike unless data argue against it. Final policy decisions hinge on developments ahead of the September meeting. If data weaken, a hike may be avoided; resilient data would undermine the case for inflation falling toward the 2% target.

US President Trump stated that all Canadian firms doing business with the United States should relocate to the US, and tariffs will be fully waived once they move.

Foreign media report that foreign ministers from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met in Istanbul yesterday. Convened by Germany and Turkey, the agenda covered measures to safeguard navigation freedom in the Strait of Hormuz and regional security. The meeting aimed to send a signal to the US emphASIsing the need to keep negotiations with Iran alive.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said regional governments must identify their true enemies. Regional problems can only be solved through unity, and the US and Israel stand opposed to such solidarity and friendship.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated no vessel can transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian coordination. Iran maintains full situational awareness over the strait, and US statements regarding ship passage are false. The strait will not reopen until the US honours its commitments.

Overnight, US forces conducted a night strike against rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, alleging preparations for mine‑laying. This marks the first publicly acknowledged US military action against Iran since late July. Iran launched missile strikes against US military bases. Missiles targeting a US base in Jordan were almost entirely intercepted.

On the daily chart, gold fell sharply last Friday, breaking below the 5‑day, 10‑day and 200‑day moving averages. Gold found support near $4396 and rebounded today, now contesting the 20‑day moving average at $4410. Key support has shifted down toward the 100‑day moving average near $4370. Daily indicators show shrinking positive MACD momentum bars, while RSI has fallen to around 52.

On the 4‑hour chart, gold keeps trending lower along the lower BOLLinger Band. Short‑term EMA5 and EMA10 have formed a bearish downward alignment. MACD negative momentum bars are expanding, and RSI is near oversold territory. Intraday short‑term outlook: expect range‑bound trade within $4395‑$4470. A breakout higher targets $4480‑$4495 or near $4505; a breakdown lower targets $4385‑$4375 or near $4365.

Key Upcoming Economic Data & Events:

20:00 Germany August Preliminary CPI MoM

22:30 US August Dallas Fed Business Activity Index

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