Spot gold opened at $4602.71 per ounce in Friday’s ASIan session. Gold drifted lower early in the session to an intraday low of $4571.80 per ounce, before surging more than $40 shortly after noon to hit $4614.26 per ounce. At press time, gold is consolidating near $4603, posting an intraday gain of roughly 0.03%.

The US Dollar Index traded within a narrow range, hitting a high of 99.21 and a low of 99.10, last quoted at 99.18, up 0.05%. The 2‑year US Treasury yield fell 0.5 bASIs points to 4.229%, while the 10‑year US Treasury yield dropped 0.4 bASIs points to 4.676%.

Global crude oil benchmarks traded lower. WTI crude stands at $82.70 per barrel, down 1.08%. Brent crude is at $87.81 per barrel, down 0.91%. US natural gas CFD trades at $2.895 per million British thermal units, down 0.31%.

In equities, China’s three major A‑share indices opened higher then pulled back. Combined Shanghai‑Shenzhen turnover reached 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24.2 billion yuan from the previous session. At close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.39 points or 0.11% to 3952.18. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 95.81 points or 0.68% to 13953.07. The ChiNext Index shed 48.95 points or 1.41% to 3424.4.

Major Hong Kong stock indices also reversed early gains. The Hang Seng Index closed marginally higher, with total market turnover hitting HK$231.209 billion. At close, the Hang Seng Index rose 19.05 points or 0.07% to 25584.79. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 15.14 points or 0.33% to 4605.15. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index edged up 0.08 points, virtually unchanged at 8490.39. The Hang Seng China‑Affiliated Corporations Index climbed 28.74 points or 0.68% to 4259.18.

European equity markets opened broadly higher this afternoon. UK FTSE 100 opened +0.51%, French CAC40 +0.87%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.69%, Spanish IBEX35 +0.70%, Italian FTSE MIB +0.87%, German DAX30 +0.54%.

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Gold T+D closed down 0.17% at 995.0 yuan per gram, while Silver T+D closed up 2.78% at 17180.0 yuan per kilogram.

Fresh economic data released: France Q2 final GDP YoY 0.5% (forecast 0.70%, prior 0.70%); France August preliminary CPI MoM 0.7% (forecast 0.70%, prior 0.60%); Switzerland August KOF Economic Barometer 106.7 (forecast 103.3, prior revised from 103.5 to 104.2); Germany August seasonally‑adjusted unemployment rate 6.4% (forecast 6.40%, prior 6.40%); Germany August seasonally‑adjusted unemployment change 0.4k (forecast 0.5k, prior 0.6k); Eurozone August Industrial Sentiment ‑5.3 (forecast ‑5.2, prior ‑6.1); Eurozone August Economic Sentiment 98.4 (forecast 97.5, prior revised from 96.9 to 97.1).

Germany’s August unemployment increase came in slightly below expectations. Beyond seasonal swings, the labour market shows little vitality, extending several months of soft readings. Spanish inflation surged to more than twice the ECB’s 2% target, and French inflation beat estimates, adding arguments for an ECB rate hike next month.

Three Fed officials voiced peRSIstent concerns over US inflation outlook overnight. Numerous Fed policymakers and global central‑bank decision‑makers are gathered for the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming. Tonight, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his most‑watched public speech since taking office.

Analysts note Treasury yields remain elevated and inflation stays well above target, yet markets remain unclear about what conditions would trigger further policy tightening from Warsh. He has pledged to bring down stubborn inflation but offered few details on the policy path. US prices rose 3.7% year‑over‑year in July, down from 4.1% in May but still markedly above the 2% long‑run objective, and the Fed kept rates unchanged in July. Markets are turning to Warsh’s speech for clues on future interest‑rate settings.

Conditions are highly unusual. The US Treasury has stepped up bond repurchases to intervene in market liquidity. This action runs counter to policy directions previously pushed by Warsh, putting the Fed Chair in a dilemma. Warsh favours reduced direct policy‑driven market guidance.

Currency markets moved even before the Jackson Hole symposium formally began. Bullish hedging demand on the US dollar has risen, with more than half of option flows betting on dollar strength this week, and bearish risk‑reversal readings have narrowed sharply. For the US dollar, a more hawkish inflation‑fighting stance from Warsh could lend support to the greenback, which would in turn pressure international gold prices.

On the daily chart, gold formed a doji candlestick and consolidated below the 5‑day moving average, hovering around the $4600 level. Among daily indicators, MACD positive momentum bars have shrunk, while RSI is flat near 67.

On the 1‑hour chart, gold oscillates between the middle and upper BOLLinger Bands. Short‑term moving averages EMA5 and EMA10 have formed a bullish configuration. MACD shows limited negative momentum, and RSI hovers around 51. For short‑term trading tonight: with key US data releases plus Fed Chair Warsh’s speech, heavy volatility is expected amid multiple drivers. Watch gold’s behaviour within the $4565‑$4643 range. A breakout higher targets $4655‑$4675 or near $4700; a breakdown lower targets $4550‑$4525 or near $4500.

Key Upcoming Economic Data & Events:

20:30 Canada June GDP MoM

21:45 US August Chicago PMI

22:00 US August UniveRSIty of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment

22:00 US August Final 1‑Year Inflation Expectations

22:00 US 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision

22:00 Fed Chair Warsh delivers speech

01:00 (Next Day) US Oil Rig Count for week ending August 28

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