On Monday, gold maintained its strong upward trend for this month. Bullish momentum contended with profit‑taking pressure, creating a mix of structural bullish fundamentals alongside short‑term overbought conditions. Last week, the US Treasury decided to increase liquidity‑support repurchases for long‑dated government bonds, weighing on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index dropped to a three‑month low of 98.56, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. Driven by rising bullish sentiment, spot gold climbed to USD 4680.63 per ounce before surrendering part of its gains and closing at USD 4651.53 per ounce. On Tuesday, bull‑bear rivalry intensified. After spot gold hit USD 4696.34 per ounce, market sentiment shifted and prices staged a pullback from highs. At press‑time, gold traded near USD 4637.05 per ounce. Markets are now focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference and US Core PCE Inflation data. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials or a rebound in inflation data would boost the US Dollar and expose gold to corrective risks. Conversely, dovish policy signals could extend the bullish rally.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced expanded sanctions against Iran on Monday, warning nations to cut commercial ties with Iran or face expulsion from the US‑dollar system. The US Dollar edged higher on Tuesday as markets assessed Washington’s expanded Iran sanctions and the latest measures taken by the US government to ease pressure on long‑term Treasury yields. Meanwhile, fueled by currency‑depreciation fears, cryptocurrencies extended their rally. Bitcoin broke above USD 80000 for the first time since mid‑May, posting a nearly 30% monthly gain. Markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s maiden speech this Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, seeking clues behind the recent surge in US Treasury yields and insight into whether the Federal Reserve can preserve its independence under the Trump administration.

Oil prices fell to a one‑week low amid a muted market reaction to Washington’s new Iran sanctions. Analysts note economic pressure poses less risk to oil supply than military escalation. As the Trump administration shifts its focus from military escalation to economic coercion, anxiety in the oil market has eased. The Trump administration states these sanctions will cripple Iran’s economy. Tehran, however, maintains its key trading partners will resist US pressure and vows retaliation over expanded US sanctions. Although US Secretary of Defense Hegseth has not ruled out military force against Iran, Washington’s tilt toward economic coercion has diminished fears that conflict will further threaten Middle‑East oil supplies. Some commentators argue the newly announced sanctions are less stringent than markets had anticipated.

Short‑term gold outlook: resistance at USD 4775.00 per ounce; downside support at USD 4500.00 per ounce.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

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