Following the release of U.S. retail sales data last Friday night, spot gold surged to a high of USD 4396.51 per ounce before entering sideways consolidation. It finally closed at USD 4375.42 per ounce, up 0.56%. Spot silver settled at USD 64.645 per ounce, gaining 0.39%.

In today’s (Monday) ASIan session, spot gold opened at USD 4375.99 per ounce with an intraday low of USD 4367.08 per ounce. After spiking briefly to USD 4416.01 per ounce in early trading, gold pulled back. At press‑time, gold was oscillating around USD 4391.

U.S. monthly retail sales posted an unexpected negative reading last Friday night. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its decline to a low of 99.47 and closed at 99.64, down 0.32%. The 2‑year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2.6 bASIs points to 4.171%; the 10‑year yield climbed 6.1 bASIs points to 4.696%; the 30‑year yield increased 5.1 bASIs points to 5.266%.

Global crude oil benchmarks advanced amid fluctuations. WTI crude closed at USD 81.53 per barrel (+0.53%); Brent crude settled at USD 88.64 per barrel (+2.07%). U.S. natural gas CFD finished at USD 2.766 per MMBtu, up 1.319%.

Major U.S. equity indices closed lower last Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.46 points (-0.20%) to 53732.53; the S&P 500 lost 13.30 points (-0.17%) to 7785.69; the NASDAQ Composite dropped 73.86 points (-0.28%) to 26729.16.

Most major European stock indices ended in negative territory. Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.53% to 26440.31; UK FTSE 100 fell 0.21% to 10750.11; France CAC 40 slipped 0.16% to 8636.8; Euro Stoxx 50 edged down 0.09% to 6539.59; Spain IBEX 35 dipped 0.06% to 20156.60; Italy FTSE MIB lost 0.20% to 53583.61.

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Au(T+D) closed up 0.99% at CNY 948.91 per gram; Ag(T+D) rose 1.06% to CNY 15780.0 per kilogram last Friday night. In early trading today, Au(T+D) gained 1.42% to CNY 953.0 per gram; Ag(T+D) advanced 2.09% to CNY 15941.0 per kilogram.

The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings increase by 0.285 tonnes versus the prior session, standing at 1023.528 tonnes. The world’s largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holdings decrease of 23.9 tonnes to 15312.13 tonnes.

Today’s central parity rates of RMB against major currencies: USD/CNY at 6.7873 (-5 pips, RMB appreciation); EUR/CNY at 7.8288 (+271 pips); HKD/CNY at 0.86496 (-0.4 pips); GBP/CNY at 9.1604 (+342 pips); AUD/CNY at 4.7929 (+159 pips); CAD/CNY at 4.8729 (+190 pips); 100JPY/CNY at 4.2487 (+33 pips); CNY/RUB at 12.4660 (+1504 pips); NZD/CNY at 3.9865 (+278 pips); CNY/MYR at 0.60311 (-2.8 pips); CHF/CNY at 8.3250 (+114 pips); SGD/CNY at 5.2899 (+49 pips).

Latest data released overnight: Canada June Wholesale Sales MoM 2.8%, vs expectation 2.7%, prior reading 0.00%. U.S. July Retail Sales MoM printed -0.6%, the steepest drop since last May and below market consensus of +0.1%, compared with prior 0.20%.

U.S. August UniveRSIty of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index 51, versus forecast 54.5, prior 55.2. U.S. June Business Inventories MoM 0%, expectation 0.1%, prior revised upward from 0.30% to 0.4%. U.S. August Preliminary 1‑Year Inflation Expectations 4.3%, expectation 4.2%, prior 4.20%.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months, with households worried about deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation. Meanwhile, U.S. July retail sales recorded their sharpest decline in more than a year as consumers cut spending on automobiles and online retailers. One‑year‑ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.3% from July’s 4.2%, higher than 3.4% in February before the Iran conflict and all readings in 2024.

Expectations for Federal Reserve tightening eased at an accelerated pace over the past week. Weaker‑than‑expected July employment data, moderate July CPI and PPI prints, plus soft July retail sales further dampened market bets for Fed rate hikes in coming months. Following data releases, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped to a one‑week low and international gold prices moved higher gradually.

Analysts note that should retail sales continue to weaken in coming months, markets will need to reassess U.S. consumer resilience and remain alert to risks of slowing economic growth. According to FedWatch Tool, odds for a policy‑rate hike before year‑end still exceed 90%. The Fed faces a difficult trade‑off between tolerating entrenched inflation and higher borrowing‑cost‑driven unemployment.

Latest global news: Media reports senior U.S. lawmakers have asked Bessent to justify yen‑intervention grounds. Canada‑U.S. tariff talks hit impasse amid major divergences over core interests. Colombia requests U.S. tariff suspension in the wake of earthquake damage.

Trump stated he is displeased that the U.S. long‑ago‑agreed joint military drills with South Korea are proceeding, citing his “good relationship” with Kim Jong‑un, and has ordered substantial scaling‑back of exercise scope.

Reportedly, at Trump’s request, the U.S. Navy is studying warship redesigns. South Korean troops fired warning shots toward DPRK soldiers crossing the Eastern Military Demarcation Line. Iran and Tajikistan signed a long‑term oil‑cooperation agreement.

Iran’s Army Chief‑of‑Staff was quoted announcing a USD 30,000 bounty for capturing or killing U.S. service personnel. He also claimed U.S. forces have been expelled and are no longer permitted entry into PeRSIan Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz. Reports allege the Trump administration bypassed Iranian negotiators to engage the Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. President Trump said last week harsher economic measures against Iran would be rolled out. Treasury Secretary Bessent also stated unprecedented sanctions targeting Iran could arrive as early as this week, though outside observers remain cautious over such rhetoric.

On the daily gold chart: gold bottomed near USD 4310 last Friday and rebounded, indicating limited further downside. Price has reclaimed both the 5‑day and 100‑day moving averages but faced resistance near USD 4416. With 5‑day and 100‑day MAs converging, fierce bull‑bear confrontation is expected around the USD 4400 psychological level. Daily indicators: MACD positive histogram is expanding; RSI flattens near the 64 level.

On the 1‑hour timeframe, the BOLLinger Bands are narrowing. Short‑term EMA5 and EMA10 maintain bullish alignment. MACD positive momentum peRSIsts and RSI hovers near 58. For intraday trading, expect consolidation within USD 4372‑4416. A breakout higher targets 4423‑4430 or 4435. A breakdown lower points to 4365‑4360 or 4350.

Key economic data & events to watch today:

15:00 China July Retail Sales YoY

15:00 China July Industrial Production YoY

15:00 State Council Information Office press briefing

15:00 China 70‑City Residential Price Monthly Report

20:30 Canada July CPI MoM

20:30 U.S. August NY Fed Manufacturing Index

22:00 U.S. August NAHB Housing Market Index

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