In today’s (Friday) ASIan session, spot gold opened at $4353.98 per ounce. It rose to an intraday high of $4363.84 per ounce before pulling back, then rebounded after hitting a low of $4310.95 per ounce. At press‑time, gold is oscillating around $4346.

The US Dollar Index traded relatively weak today, failing to reclaim the 100‑point level. It drifted lower from an intraday high of 99.97 to a low of 99.70 and is now quoted at 99.73, down 0.22%. The 2‑year US Treasury yield rose 0.6 bASIs points to 4.151%; the 10‑year US Treasury yield climbed 2.4 bASIs points to 4.659%.

After two days of correction, global crude oil benchmarks resumed their upward momentum. WTI crude oil stands at $82.59 per barrel, up 1.83%; Brent crude oil is at $88.03 per barrel, up 1.37%; US Natural Gas CFD is at $2.811 per million British thermal units, up 2.967%.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s domestic refined‑oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 tonight. The retail price caps for domestic gasoline and diesel will be cut by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per tonne respectively. The price of No.92 gasoline, No.95 gasoline and No.0 diesel will drop by 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan and 0.19 yuan per litre correspondingly.

In today’s equity market, the three major A‑share indices traded sideways throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning positive near the close. Total turnover across Shanghai and Shenzhen exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, with more than 2,300 stocks closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.21 points or 0.01% to 3927.18. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 64.86 points or 0.45% to 14354.31. The ChiNext Index advanced 40.25 points or 1.12% to 3626.3.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index remained sluggish in afternoon trading. Total market turnover reached HK$254.179 billion. The Hang Seng Index fell 279.66 points or 1.1% to 25116.85. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 84.77 points or 1.77% to 4707.62. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slipped 85.66 points or 1.02% to 8340.83. The Hang Seng China Red‑Chip Index added 43.49 points or 1.06% to 4132.69.

Major European stock indices opened higher this afternoon. Germany’s DAX 30 opened +0.63%, UK FTSE 100 +0.08%, France CAC 40 +0.05%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.22%, Spain IBEX 35 +0.12%, Italy FTSE MIB +0.03%.

This afternoon, Au(T+D) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed 1.47% lower at 940.5 yuan per gram; Ag(T+D) closed 1.99% lower at 15615.0 yuan per kilogram.

Latest data released today: France’s final July CPI MoM stood at 0.6%, in line with expectations and matching the previous reading. Euro‑zone seasonally‑adjusted June trade balance printed at 1.8 billion euros versus the prior‑month reading of ‑5.0 billion euros. Final Q2 Euro‑zone employment quarter‑on‑quarter change came in at 0.1%, consistent with forecasts and prior value. Revised Q2 Euro‑zone GDP YoY was 1%, matching expectations and the previous figure.

With both US CPI and PPI cooling, alongside softening employment data, market expectations for a September Fed rate hike have eased. The US bond market has staged a notable rebound. Analysts note that if oil prices hold near $80 per barrel, the Federal Reserve will likely skip a rate hike in September.

Tonight brings the closely‑watched US July Retail Sales report, known as the “terrifying data”. Markets expect a month‑on‑month rise of just 0.1%. This gauge of household spending power and consumer sentiment could act as a key catalyst amid growing divisions within the Federal Reserve. Investors should pay close attention.

The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. At least four ASIan refiners purchased US crude oil this week. With no near‑term prospect for resumption of shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude‑oil supplies for coming months from sources outside the Gulf region.

US Energy Secretary Wright stated that 8‑9 million barrels of oil per day flow through the Strait of Hormuz and oil transit volumes will keep rising. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on local‑time Thursday that the Trump administration plans to announce new economic measures targeting Iran next week to apply further financial pressure for concessions from Tehran. US Secretary of Defense Hegseth commented that US military forces can sustain a long‑term blockade via continuous naval‑ship rotations.

For international gold, prices neared the $4450 threshold this week. Soft inflation figures dampened September Fed‑hike expectations, and investors took profits following the sharp gold rally. Gold is projected to post a modest weekly decline.

On the daily chart, gold’s intraday downward momentum has moderated. Prices found support near $4310 and bounced back, yet have still failed to climb above the 5‑day moving average. Caught under dual resistance from the 100‑day and 5‑day moving averages, gold is expected to trade sideways within the $4300‑4385 range in the short term.

On the 4‑hour chart, gold maintains weak consolidation. Short‑term moving averages EMA5 and EMA10 remain in bearish alignment. MACD positive histogram keeps shrinking, while the RSI indicator has rebounded from 40 toward the 50 level. For tonight’s short‑term trading, expect range‑bound movement between $4300‑4385. A breakout higher would target $4400‑4415 or near $4430; a breakdown lower would point to $4285‑4265 or around $4235.

Key economic data and events to watch tonight:

20:30 Canada June Wholesale Sales MoM

20:30 US July Retail Sales MoM

22:00 US August Preliminary 1‑Year Inflation Expectations

22:00 US June Business Inventories MoM

22:00 US August Preliminary UniveRSIty of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

01:00 (next day) US Weekly Oil Rig Count as of August 14

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