Spot gold rebounded briefly near the $4400 threshold in the U.S. session overnight before falling again, hitting an intraday low of $4343.71 and finally closing at $4351.00, down 1.30%. Spot silver settled at $64.393 per troy ounce, a decline of 1.34%.

Spot gold opened at $4353.98 per troy ounce in Friday’s ASIan session, with an intraday high of $4363.84. It extended its downward swing in the early morning to a low of $4310.95, and was trading around $4316 as of press time.

The release of U.S. data overnight cooled market expectations for a September Fed rate hike. The U.S. Dollar Index dipped to a low of 99.80 and closed at 99.96, edging down 0.01%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 5.8 bASIs points to 4.145%; the 10-year yield dropped 6.1 bASIs points to 4.635%; the 30-year yield declined 4.6 bASIs points to 5.215%.

Global crude oil benchmarks swung sharply overnight. WTI crude closed at $81.11 per barrel, down 1.76%; Brent crude settled at $86.84 per barrel, falling 1.71%. U.S. natural gas CFDs ended at $2.73 per MMBtu, a 2.361% drop.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher overnight, with the S&P 500 briefly breaking above 7800 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 69.81 points (+0.13%) to 53840.08; the S&P 500 added 50.65 points (+0.65%) to 7799.15; the Nasdaq Composite climbed 214.54 points (+0.81%) to 26803.03.

Most major European equity indexes closed lower. Germany’s DAX 30 fell 0.14% to 26308.60; UK FTSE 100 lost 0.59% to 10769.20; France’s CAC 40 dipped 0.28% to 8650.56; Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.21% to 6547.95; Spain’s IBEX 35 slipped 0.12% to 20179.15; Italy’s FTSE MIB inched 0.05% higher to 53725.00.

Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed down 0.96% at RMB 945.3 per gram overnight, and Ag(T+D) fell 1.21% to RMB 15740.0 per kilogram. In Friday’s early session, Au(T+D) opened 1.38% lower at RMB 941.31 per gram, while Ag(T+D) dropped 2.05% to RMB 15605.0 per kilogram.

The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, cut its holdings by 2.568 tonnes from the previous trading day, with total holdings standing at 1023.243 tonnes. The world’s top silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased positions by 22.49 tonnes, bringing total holdings to 15336.03 tonnes.

Official central parity rates for the RMB on Friday: USD/CNY quoted at 6.7878 (RMB appreciated by 10 pips); EUR/CNY 7.8017 (up 3 pips); HKD/CNY 0.8650 (down 1.8 pips); GBP/CNY 9.1262 (down 93 pips); AUD/CNY 4.7770 (down 27 pips); CAD/CNY 4.8539 (up 13 pips); 100JPY/CNY 4.2454 (down 54 pips); RMB/RUB 12.3156 (up 404 pips); NZD/CNY 3.9587 (down 65 pips); RMB/MYR 0.60339 (up 4.2 pips); CHF/CNY 8.3136 (down 123 pips); SGD/CNY 5.2850 (down 32 pips).

U.S. economic data released overnight: July PPI YoY printed at 4.7%, the lowest since March, below the 4.9% consensus and sharply down from the prior 5.5%. July PPI MoM came in at 0%, undershooting the 0.20% forecast, with the prior reading revised from -0.30% to -0.1%. Core PPI YoY was 4.2%, matching expectations (prior 4.7%); Core PPI MoM registered 0.2%, lower than the 0.30% forecast, revised up from 0.20% to 0.4%.

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 hit 209,000, the highest since the week of July 11 and above the market expectation of 202,000.

The weaker-than-expected July U.S. Producer Price Index further indicated fading inflation pressures stemming from earlier oil price surges. Combined with the soft CPI print earlier this week, the case for the Federal Reserve to deliver another rate hike in September has weakened markedly.

Fed Governor Loretta Mester stated that the Fed still needs to raise rates as current policy is not restrictive enough. Rate hikes may cause short-term pain, but the central bank cannot allow excessive economic expansion and investment that risks overheating the economy. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted it remains unresolved whether additional hikes are needed to restore the 2% inflation target or if inflation has already embarked on a sustained downward trajectory.

Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced signals that inflation has likely peaked, and markets have fully priced out the possibility of additional Fed rate hikes for the rest of the year. U.S. Treasury bonds rallied, pulling yields across the curve lower, with July PPI cooling overnight following the second consecutive slowdown in CPI.

The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order imposing ad valorem tariffs ranging from 10% to 100% on imported drones and their components over national security concerns.

Geopolitical updates: Iran claimed full control over the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to escalate hostilities if its demands are unmet. U.S. forces maintained the blockade and deployed the USS Washington aircraft carrier to the Middle East for rotational duty. U.S. Central Command officially established the first multi-domain, multinational drone strike task force “Falcon Strike” to integrate unmanned aerial warfare capabilities across the region.

Escalating attacks on civilian ports and vessels in the Black Sea have drastically elevated global food supply risks. Ukraine reportedly proposed a ceasefire to Russia via third-party intermediaries to halt the collapse in grain exports, while Russia stated no formal proposal has been received.

On the daily gold chart: Gold rallied to near the $4450 threshold yesterday before rolling over. Having broken below the 100-day moving average and subsequently the 5-day MA, the price now consolidates sideways under $4400. After the prolonged rally, the metal is technically due for a short-term pullback. On daily indicators, the MACD positive histogram remains sustained, and the RSI hovers around the 60 level.

On the 1-hour timeframe, gold trended steadily lower. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 crossed downward in a bearish formation, the MACD negative momentum histogram expanded continuously, and RSI dropped close to the oversold level of 30. Intraday trading strategy: Monitor support around the $4300 mark, with a projected consolidation range of $4300–$4360. A breakout to the upside targets $4370–$4380 and then $4400; a breakdown points to $4285–$4270, followed by $4255.

Key Economic Releases & Events for Today:

14:45 Final French July CPI MoM

17:00 Revised Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY

17:00 Final Eurozone Q2 Quarterly Employment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

17:00 Eurozone June Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance

20:30 Canada June Wholesale Sales MoM

20:30 U.S. July Retail Sales MoM

22:00 U.S. Preliminary August 1-Year Inflation Expectations

22:00 U.S. June Business Inventories MoM

22:00 Preliminary UniveRSIty of Michigan U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index (August)

01:00 Next Day – U.S. Weekly Oil Rig Count (Week Ending August 14)

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