Spot gold opened at $4,375.99 per troy ounce during Monday’s ASIan session. Prices dipped briefly to an intraday low of $4,367.08 per troy ounce in early trade, then rallied swiftly to hit $4,416.01 per troy ounce before pulling back toward the $4,400 threshold and entering sideways consolidation. At press time, gold traded near $4,395, marking a roughly 1% gain on the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index extended its intraday decline, touching a low of 99.30 and recently standing at 99.34, down 0.30%. The 2‑year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1.7 bASIs points to 4.154%; the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1.7 bASIs points to 4.679%.

The two major global crude benchmarks traded within tight ranges. WTI crude stood at $81.42 per barrel, down 0.15%. Brent crude traded at $88.88 per barrel, up 0.27%. U.S. natural‑gas CFDs were quoted at $2.70 per MMBtu, down 2.386%.

Turning to equities, China’s three major A‑share indices opened higher and advanced throughout the session. Total turnover across Shanghai and Shenzhen reached RMB 2.39 trillion, an increase of RMB 244.6 billion versus the previous trading day. More than 4,300 stocks rose across the market. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 55.48 points (+1.41%) to 3,982.65. The Shenzhen Component Index gained 349.97 points (+2.44%) to 14,704.27. The ChiNext Index rose 113.86 points (+3.14%) to 3,740.16.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened higher and moved upward. Total market turnover hit HKD 210.77 billion at the close. The Hang Seng Index added 336.38 points (+1.34%) to 25,453.23. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 74.41 points (+1.58%) to 4,782.03. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advanced 99.14 points (+1.19%) to 8,439.97. The Hang Seng China Red‑Chip Index edged up 28.79 points (+0.7%) to 4,161.48.

European major indices opened in the afternoon: Germany’s DAX 30 +0.20%, UK FTSE 100 +0.29%, France CAC 40 ‑0.05%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.27%, Spain IBEX 35 ‑0.11%, Italy FTSE MIB +0.28%.

In afternoon trade, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Gold T+D closed 1.48% higher at RMB 953.49 per gram. Silver T+D settled up 2.73% at RMB 16,040 per kilogram. Multiple domestic gold‑jewellery retailers adjusted their quoted prices for fine‑gold ornaments to roughly RMB 1,330 per gram.

Foreign‑exchange data show the onshore CNY‑USD spot rate broke above 6.74 intraday, hitting its strongest level since early February 2023. The offshore CNY‑USD rate also crossed the 6.74 mark.

Freshly‑released domestic data: China July total retail sales of consumer goods +0.6% YoY (forecast 1.50%, prior 1.00%). China July industrial value‑added by large‑scale enterprises +4.5% YoY (forecast 4.8%, prior 5.30%).

The National Bureau of Statistics commented that the national economy operated generally stable across January‑July, advancing toward higher‑quality development. Moderate inflation is expected in the second half of the year. In July, month‑over‑month new‑home prices were flat in first‑tier cities, dipped 0.1% in second‑tier cities, and fell 0.3% in third‑tier cities. The average surveyed urban unemployment rate for Jan‑Jul stood at 5.2%, matching both Jan‑Jun and the year‑earlier reading.

Fed‑watch tool data show markets are pricing only a 32.5% probability of a September rate hike, the lowest reading in this tightening cycle. Market pessimism over monetary‑policy tightening has eased substantially.

Gold’s fundamentals have improved materially amid fading Fed‑hike expectations, peRSIstent U.S.‑dollar weakness and ongoing geopolitical risks. Combined with sustained central‑bank gold buying and low market positioning, multiple positive drivers are set to unlock gold’s medium‑to‑long‑term upside potential.

Meanwhile, heightened Middle‑East tensions and disrupted international shipping have severely disturbed energy supplies, drawing safe‑haven capital back into gold. A meaningful de‑escalation could erode gold’s safe‑haven premium. Should inflation re‑accelerate or the Fed deliver more hawkish signals, investors need to guard against a deep technical correction in bullion.

On the daily chart, two intraday sharp rallies ended in pullbacks, signalling resistance above the $4,400 level. Gold is currently consolidating around the convergence of the 5‑day and 100‑day moving averages, where short‑term bull‑bear confrontation remains intense. Among daily indicators, the MACD maintains positive momentum, while the RSI hovers near 64.

On the 1‑hour chart, BOLLinger‑Band bandwidth keeps contracting, with gold oscillating between the middle and upper bands. Short‑term EMA5 and EMA10 stay in bullish alignment. MACD retains positive momentum, and RSI trades near 56. For evening short‑term trading, this commentary retains earlier strategy: watch price action inside the $4,372‑$4,416 range. A breakout to the upside targets $4,423‑$4,435 or near $4,445. Downside targets sit at $4,365‑$4,355 or around $4,330.

Key economic data & events for tonight:

20:30 Canada July CPI MoM

20:30 U.S. August New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index

22:00 U.S. August NAHB Housing Market Index

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