During Tuesday evening’s US trading session, spot gold and spot silver both advanced. Soft US labor market and consumer confidence data helped the precious metals recover from Monday’s sell-off. Nevertheless, long-term US Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs, limiting the scope of the rebound. At the close, spot gold settled at $4182.15 per ounce, up 1.63% for the day. #GoldClosingCommentary#

(Source: FX168)

Spot silver traded at $61.470 per ounce, a gain of 1.39%.

(Source: FX168)

US Treasury Yields Still Apply Pressure

North American equities closed slightly lower on Tuesday, as rising long-term yields offset support from weak data and falling oil prices. The S&P 500 fell 12.85 points, or 0.2%, to 7670.84; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 131.59 points, or 0.3%, to 51349.92; the Nasdaq Composite declined 22.84 points, or 0.1%, to 26797.54; the Russell 2000 lost 9.99 points, or 0.4%, to 2807.92.

European stock markets finished mixed. Crude oil prices, bond yields and sector rotation created diverging risk appetite. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.3% to 640.28; Germany’s DAX added 0.10% to 25399.21; Italy’s FTSE MIB edged up 0.09%. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.53% to 8035.87; the UK FTSE 100 slipped 0.45% to 10636.71.

Rate Cut Expectations Warm Up

Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October cooled markedly. August JOLTS job openings fell to 7.079 million, down from July’s 7.335 million and below the market estimate of roughly 7.225 million. The September Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 88.6 to 81.9, hitting the lowest level since 2014. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stated there was “no urgency”, further driving market repricing. Traders now price the probability of an October rate hike at about 51.5%, down from 70.9% on Monday.

As a result, the 2-year US Treasury yield retreated to around 4.89%. Yet the relief is only partial: the 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.25%, and the 30-year yield holds at roughly 5.59%. This continues to pressure duration-sensitive stocks and non-interest-bearing gold. Markets will now focus on Wednesday’s US August personal income and PCE inflation data (8:30 AM ET), Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 AM ET), and Friday’s September employment report (8:30 AM ET). Weaker inflation or jobs figures will reinforce gold’s rebound; stronger-than-expected data could reignite upward yield momentum and resume Monday’s sell-off in precious metals.

Middle East Tensions and Oil Price Linkage

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran standoff remains unresolved, but signs of recovering crude exports in the Middle East have eased the immediate risk premium built into oil prices. Mediators have passed a revised interim proposal, which includes Iran allowing free passage through the strait and the US lifting blockades on Iranian ports. Disagreements peRSIst over implementation sequencing, oil exemptions, frozen assets and verification matters.

Brent crude settled down 2.6% at $102.59 per barrel; WTI crude fell 3.5% to $89.38 per barrel. Investors are weighing restored flows in the Middle East, Saudi alternative export routes, and the risk of negotiation collapse. Lower oil prices help moderate inflation expectations, which in turn cap yields and the US dollar, lending support to gold on the day. Still, shipping risks have not fully disappeared, and defensive buying interest in precious metals remains in place.

US Dollar and Technical Levels to Watch

In external markets, Nymex WTI crude trades near $89.38 and Brent crude near $102.59. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovers around the 5.25% zone. The US Dollar Index sits close to a two-month high, though off its intraday peak. The Kitco Global Index shows that during gold’s price swings on the day, the impact from the US dollar and gold-specific factors should be distinguished.

From a technical perspective, the next target for spot gold bulls is to reclaim the resistance zone of $4190.00 to $4222.11. A sustained break above this level would open further upside toward $4238.00 and $4254.44. The immediate near-term target for bears is a break below $4166.49, followed by $4112.00 and $4071.86. The first resistance sits at $4190.00, then $4222.11; the first support is $4166.49, followed by $4112.00.

For spot silver, bulls aim to retake the $61.727–$62.180 zone. A breakout above this range targets $62.834 and $64.080. Bears look for a drop below $60.310, with further downside to $59.706 and $58.770. Primary resistance is at $61.727, then $62.180; primary support stands at $60.310, followed by $59.706.

Overall, the short-term rebound in precious metals is mainly driven by cooling rate hike expectations triggered by soft US data, yet peRSIstently high long-term yields remain the core factor capping gains for gold and silver. Going forward, if PCE and employment data continue to weaken, gold may extend its recovery. Conversely, renewed upward yield momentum could quickly erode the rebound.