After months‑long correction, gold prices seem to resume their march toward $5,000 per ounce.
On Tuesday (August 25), Bernard Dahdah, precious‑metals analyst at Natixis, raised his year‑end gold forecast, predicting gold will hit $5,000 per ounce before the end of the year, up from the prior target of $4,600. This upward revision comes as gold is set to finish August with a monthly gain of nearly 15%.
Gold Poised for Its Best Monthly Performance in 25 Years
Spot gold is currently hovering above $4,600 per ounce. For August as a whole, gold is on track to deliver its largest monthly increase since September 1999.
Dahdah pointed out that gold’s rally kicked off in early August, when disappointing economic figures forced markets to reprice interest‑rate expectations. One month ago, markets were pricing in at least two rate hikes, yet expectations have reversed; markets are now pricing one rate cut in December. He added that gold received a second wave of buying support after the US Treasury announced it would double its 10‑year and 30‑year Treasury buyback size to $4 billion. This bond‑buying program coincided with US national debt breaking through the $40‑trillion mark.
Treasury Intervenes in Bond Market; Fiscal Worries Fuel Debasement Trades
Dahdah commented: “The Treasury intervention came as the 30‑year yield hit a 20‑year high of 5.3%. Markets worry that failure to contain the long‑end yield curve will exert negative pressure on mortgage loans and the real‑estate sector. Even though the opportunity cost of holding gold has risen, markets are concerned over fiscal and bond‑market stability. Resulting fears over currency debasement make gold more appealing.”
Dahdah expects mounting sovereign‑debt worries, which have lifted gold prices this month, will offer further tailwinds for gold through the rest of this year. “US debt is expanding faster than anticipated. Court rulings struck down tariff measures, depriving the government of one source of revenue. Meanwhile, the Pentagon keeps pushing for higher spending. Private‑sector debt is surging as AI companies pursue expansion. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have signed power‑purchase agreements worth nearly $250 billion, with around $2.4 trillion in committed purchases and investments,” he said. In his view, mounting fiscal and debt pressure will keep reinforcing gold’s safe‑haven and value‑preserving properties.
He forecasts gold will average $5,000 per ounce in 2027. At the same time, he is bullish on silver, projecting an average silver price of roughly $78 per ounce next year.
Against the backdrop of ballooning fiscal deficits, frequent bond‑market interventions and shifting rate expectations, gold is back on track to test $5,000. From defending critical support at $4,000, to eyeing its best monthly performance in 25 years and upward target revisions from institutions, bullish sentiment toward gold has strengthened markedly. Nevertheless, inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy paths remain key variables shaping gold’s price rhythm. Whether gold can truly break through the $5,000 threshold by year‑end remains to be seen.
Spot Gold Monthly Chart, Source: Yihuitong
At 10:10 Beijing Time, August 26, spot gold traded at $4,659.78 per ounce.