As U.S. Treasury yields moved peRSIstently higher, spot gold hit a fresh intraday low of $4110.67 per ounce overnight, the lowest level since August 5. It finally settled at $4114.78 per ounce, down 3.96%. Spot silver closed at $60.596 per ounce, a drop of 5.67%.

During Tuesday’s ASIan trading session, spot gold opened at $4116.11 per ounce with an intraday low of $4113.32 per ounce. Gold edged higher in early ASIan trade and peaked at $4139.12 per ounce. At press time, gold was trading near $4135, up 0.49% on the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index maintained its upward trend and consolidated overnight, closing at 101.19, up 0.15%. U.S. Treasury yields climbed across all maturities. The 2-year yield rose 6.9 bASIs points to settle at 4.933%; the 10-year yield increased 7.6 bASIs points to 5.243%; the 30-year yield advanced 4.8 bASIs points to 5.55%.

International crude oil rallied then retreated overnight. WTI crude closed at $93.07 per barrel with its gain narrowed to 0.79%; Brent crude finished at $98.35 per barrel, up 1.05%. U.S. natural gas CFDs closed at $3.149 per MMBtu, down 3.349%.

The three major U.S. stock indices fell across the board overnight. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 346.90 points, or 0.67%, to 51481.72. The S&P 500 fell 59.48 points, or 0.77%, to 7683.93. The Nasdaq Composite lost 248.34 points, or 0.92%, to 26820.38.

Most European stock indices closed lower. Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.07% to 25413.99; UK FTSE 100 fell 0.07% to 10687.24; France CAC 40 edged up 0.01% to 8078.48; Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.10% to 6309.35; Spain IBEX 35 dropped 0.46% to 19609.79; Italy FTSE MIB fell 0.19% to 51767.50.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, increased by 4.277 tonnes from the previous session, bringing total holdings to 1058.832 tonnes. iShares Silver Trust, the world’s largest silver ETF, cut holdings by 14.05 tonnes, with total holdings now at 15364.64 tonnes.

Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Gold T+D closed down 2.88% at 900.35 yuan per gram overnight. Silver T+D closed down 5.0% at 14853.0 yuan per kilogram. In early trade today, SGE Gold T+D fell 1.88% to 890.2 yuan per gram; Silver T+D dipped 2.41% to 14753.0 yuan per kilogram.

Today’s central parity rate of RMB in the FX market: USD/CNY at 6.7411, up 12 pips (CNY depreciation); EUR/CNY at 7.6494, down 70 pips; HKD/CNY at 0.85935, up 1.2 pips; GBP/CNY at 8.9172, up 165 pips; AUD/CNY at 4.7197, up 15 pips; CAD/CNY at 4.7449, down 61 pips; 100JPY/CNY at 4.2750, up 65 pips; CNY/RUB at 12.5711, up 242 pips; NZD/CNY at 3.8100, up 49 pips; CNY/MYR at 0.60647, up 11.5 pips; CHF/CNY at 8.0914, down 209 pips; SGD/CNY at 5.2673, up 53 pips.

European Central Bank President Lagarde said overnight that eurozone inflation remains on a "middle path" that warrants moderate ECB rate hikes. While the magnitude of this shock cannot be ignored, she believes moderate measures are appropriate to contain inflation. Inflation is expected to rise in the near term, yet there are no signs so far that inflation is becoming entrenched.

Analysts say the recent selloff in U.S. Treasuries may have been overdone, driven mainly by shifting market rate expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield has neared its June 2007 high, reflecting higher oil prices and robust U.S. economic performance. No major fiscal news has emerged to trigger such a sharp spike in yields. As Fed tightening turns out less aggressive than investors currently expect, the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to fall substantially to 4.25% by the end of 2027.

U.S. Democratic lawmakers are preparing for congressional oveRSIght actions after the midterm elections. If Democrats take control of the House or Senate after the November midterms, business transactions linked to the Trump family and firms donating to White House projects may become targets of new investigations.

Mediators held separate talks with the United States and Iran yesterday. Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran’s supreme leader stressed the Strait of Hormuz can only be reopened once relevant conditions are met. He also added that he will return to Tehran instead of staying in New York to wait for a U.S. response.

Iran stated that negotiations to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz have made little substantive progress, and the risk of conflict escalation may rise after the November 3 vote. U.S. President Trump said media reports claiming sanctions waivers and frozen funds would be offered to Iran are untrue, and the outlet should retract the false story immediately.

On the daily chart, gold tumbled sharply yesterday and touched near the $4110 level, the lowest since August 6. Gold is gradually approaching the July consolidation zone. A break below $4100 would open downside toward $3980. Daily indicators show the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have crossed below the 100-day MA. The MACD negative histogram is expanding, and RSI hovers around 36.

On the 4-hour chart, gold slides along the lower BOLLinger Band. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 maintain a bearish downward arrangement. MACD shows peRSIstently large negative momentum, and RSI has fallen to around 28 below the oversold threshold. For intraday short-term trading, gold is expected to consolidate within the $4110–$4155 range. A breakout upward targets $4165–$4175 or near $4185. Downside targets sit at $4105–$4100 or near $3985.

Key economic data and events to watch today:

TBC: U.S. President Trump holds a meeting on artificial intelligence

12:30: RBA Interest Rate Decision

13:30: RBA Governor Bullock holds press conference

15:00: Switzerland September KOF Economic Barometer

16:30: UK August Bank of England Mortgage Approvals

17:00: Eurozone September Industrial Sentiment Index

17:00: Eurozone September Economic Sentiment Index

20:30: Canada July GDP MoM

21:00: U.S. July FHFA House Price Index MoM

21:00: U.S. July S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY

22:00: U.S. August JOLTs Job Openings

22:00: U.S. September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

01:00 (next day): Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

01:00 (next day): OpenAI CEO Altman delivers speech

01:30 (next day): Fed’s Musalem speaks

02:00 (next day): Fed’s Williams speaks

04:30 (next day): U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, week ending Sep 25

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