During Thursday’s ASIan session, spot gold opened at $4289.44 per ounce. After hitting an intraday high of $4302.99 per ounce, gold trended down steadily, touching a low of $4258.65 per ounce. At press time, gold traded near $4262 per ounce, down 0.59% on the day.

The US Dollar Index consolidated during ASIan trading hours and strengthened again after the European market opened in the afternoon. It now stands at 101.22, a two-month high, up 0.09% for the day. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 2 bASIs points to 5.14%, the highest level since 2007. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed 3 bASIs points to 5.435%, also a new high since 2007.

The two major international crude oil benchmarks maintained gains. WTI crude is quoted at $93.95 per barrel, up 1.30%. Brent crude trades at $100.32 per barrel, rising 1.92%. US natural gas CFDs are at $3.179 per MMBtu, up 0.063%.

In equities, China’s A-share three major indices opened lower and weakened. Combined turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.65 trillion yuan, down about 111.6 billion yuan compared with the same period yesterday. Around 1,100 stocks rose while 4,000 declined. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 48.15 points or 1.22% to 3888.37. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 319.11 points or 2.34% to 13316.97. The ChiNext Index lost 90.66 points or 2.68% to 3288.95.

Hong Kong’s two main stock indices opened lower and rebounded in the afternoon. At the close, the Hang Seng Index shed 72.99 points or 0.29% to 24761.13. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 17.94 points or 0.41% to 4361.13. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 7.8 points or 0.09% to 8266.01. The Hang Seng Red Chip Index lost 7.09 points or 0.18% to 4020.12.

European stock indices all opened lower in the afternoon. The UK FTSE 100 opened 0.22% down; France’s CAC40 opened 0.38% lower; Spain’s IBEX35 opened 0.62% down; Italy’s FTSE MIB opened 0.54% lower; EURO STOXX 50 opened 0.41% down; Germany’s DAX30 opened 0.41% lower.

In the afternoon, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed down 0.99% at 926.5 yuan per gram. Ag(T+D) closed 2.93% lower at 15658.0 yuan per kilogram.

Fresh data released today showed Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August stood at 4.6%, versus an expectation of 4.50% and a prior reading of 4.50%. The rise in the jobless rate masked a sharp increase in employment numbers, somewhat clouding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s view of a slightly tight labour market.

Germany’s September IFO Business Climate Index came in at 89.9, beating expectations of 89 and the prior reading of 88.8. Given Germany’s better-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year, several major German economic research institutes upgraded next year’s growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.1%, and projected growth to slow to 0.4% in 2028.

The Swiss National Bank announced its rate decision, keeping interest rates at zero, raising inflation forecasts and softening the threat of intervention to weaken the Swiss franc. The SNB Governor stated that current monetary policy is appropriate and inflation projections remain within the price stability range. Uncertainty remains high, and policymakers will continue monitoring developments and adjust policy if needed.

Norges Bank raised interest rates by 25 bASIs points to 4.5%, matching market expectations and up from 4.25% previously. Sweden’s Riksbank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 1.75%, in line with forecasts.

John Williams, permanent FOMC voter and President of the New York Fed, delivered remarks today. He noted the US economy has shown remarkable resilience and downside risks to full employment have diminished. Inflation poses significant challenges and demand for artificial intelligence remains quite strong. Inflation needs to return to target in a timely manner, and another rate hike before year-end would be reasonable.

Reports say US negotiators rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during indirect talks held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Sources indicate more indirect negotiations may take place before the UNGA closes, while mediators are waiting for Trump to decide whether to continue the process or take alternative paths.

Major General Hatami, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, issued a statement regarding Iranian President Pezeshkian’s speech at the UNGA. He said the speech was “the voice of the firm and brave Iranian nation, reflecting the unity of all Iranians in the face of hostile forces”. Safavi, senior military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, warned that conflict with the US may escalate further and the next phase of the war could extend to the Indian Ocean.

Fundamental analysis for international gold: After months of sharp sell-offs in global bond markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5% this month. 10-year to 30-year government bond yields in the US and major G7 economies have climbed to multi-decade highs. If the energy price shock fails to subside promptly, the high-rate environment may peRSIst for much longer.

Hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials over the past two days have further reinforced expectations of monetary tightening, pushing the US dollar to its highest level since July. In addition, rebounding energy prices have lifted the US dollar. Brent crude has climbed back above $100 per barrel, and international gold faces pressure from the stronger greenback.

Several Fed officials will speak tonight, including Barkin, Hammack and Paulson. US economic data will also be released this evening: weekly initial jobless claims and the US Q2 current account balance. These factors will drive market volatility later in the session.

On the daily gold chart, gold rose briefly near the $4300 level in early ASIan trading before pulling back, showing strong resistance around the 100-day moving average. Bulls remain relatively weak in the short term, and the $4200 level faces a test. On daily indicators, MACD negative momentum bars are expanding, and the RSI has declined to around 42.

On the 4-hour gold chart, all three BOLLinger Bands slant downwards and gold drifts lower near the lower band. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 remain in a bearish alignment. MACD negative momentum bars keep growing, while RSI has fallen to roughly 32. For short-term trading tonight, expect gold to trade sideways within the $4235–$4300 range. A breakout higher would target $4308–$4315 or $4325. A breakdown lower would target $4225–$4210 or $4200.

Key economic data and events to watch tonight:

18:00 UK September CBI Retail Sales Balance

20:00 Fed’s Barkin to participate in discussion

20:30 Canada July Retail Sales MoM

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Sep 19

20:30 US Q2 Current Account Balance

20:50 Fed’s Hammack to deliver speech

22:00 US August New Home Sales Annualized

22:10 Fed’s Paulson to deliver speech

22:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage for the week ending Sep 18

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