In today’s (Monday) ASIan session, spot gold opened at $4427.17 per ounce. Gold traded in a weak range throughout the day, hitting a high of $4435.03 per ounce and a low of $4385.16 per ounce. At press time, gold is consolidating near $4411, down 0.44% for the session.

The U.S. Dollar Index first consolidated within a narrow range and reached a high of 99.21. It fell rapidly after the European market opened in the afternoon to a low of 98.83 and is now quoted at 98.94, down 0.22%. The 2‑year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 4.373%, the 10‑year yield at 4.785%, and the 30‑year yield at 5.244%.

WTI and Brent crude gapped higher at the open and pulled back after surging. WTI crude is quoted at $91.54 per barrel with gains narrowing to 0.19%. Brent crude stands at $96.75 per barrel, up 0.89%. U.S. natural gas CFD is at $2.931 per MMBtu, down 0.17%.

In equities, China’s A‑share three major indexes closed higher. Combined turnover for Shanghai and Shenzhen reached 1.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 84.6 billion yuan from the previous trading session. At close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.58 points or 0.07% to 3932.7; the Shenzhen Component Index advanced 257.95 points or 1.91% to 13774.92; the ChiNext Index climbed 112.14 points or 3.41% to 3398.68.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened higher then quickly turned lower. It rebounded in the afternoon before slipping again near the close. The Hang Seng Index fell 237.75 points or 0.93% to 25413.12; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 42.09 points or 0.92% to 4527.71; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 125.3 points or 1.46% to 8429.73; the Hang Seng China‑Affiliated Corporations Index declined 37.01 points or 0.88% to 4176.45.

Major European stock indexes opened in the afternoon: France CAC40‑0.14%, Euro Stoxx 50‑0.04%, Spain IBEX35‑0.04%, Italy FTSE MIB +0.12%, UK FTSE 100‑0.20%, Germany DAX30‑0.16%.

In afternoon trading, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed down 1.88% at 948.5 yuan per gram; Ag(T+D) closed down 1.7% at 15970.0 yuan per kilogram.

Latest data shows China’s gold reserves stood at 76.73 million troy ounces (approximately 2386.57 tons) at end‑August, rising by 650,000 troy ounces (about 20.22 tons) month‑on‑month. The People’s Bank of China has increased gold holdings for the 22nd consecutive month. China’s August foreign‑exchange reserves came in at 3438.325 billion U.S. dollars, versus expectations of 3425.0 billion and the prior reading of 3418.78 billion.

Germany July seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM:‑1.1%, expected 0.1%, previous 0.20%. UK August Halifax seasonally adjusted house‑price index MoM:‑0.2%, expected 0.1%, previous 0%. Switzerland August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate: 3.1%, expected 3.1%, previous 3.10%.

Eurozone September Sentix investor confidence index: 5.1, expected 2, previous 0.9. Eurozone Q2 final GDP YoY: 1.2%, expected 1.00%, previous 1.00%. Eurozone Q2 final seasonally adjusted employment change QoQ: 0.10%, expected 0.10%, previous 0.10%.

Markets are now focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for September 15‑16. Late last month, Fed Chair Walsh delivered remarks signalling that “action may have to be taken if inflation remains high”. Afterwards, Fed Governor Waller stated he would favour keeping rates steady if incoming data confirms cooling inflation pressures. However, expectations for a U.S. rate hike rose following Friday’s strong non‑farm payrolls report, and uncertainty remains over whether a rate hike will materialise.

Ahead of the September Fed meeting, U.S. August CPI, a core inflation indicator closely watched by the Fed, will be released this Friday. Over recent months, Fed officials have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to price stability, and policy responses will largely hinge on this release.

Market forecasts point to U.S. August headline CPI YoY rising to 3.4% while core CPI eases to 2.4%. Inflation has run above the Fed’s target for more than five consecutive years, so CPI results will directly shape September policy expectations. Further improvement in inflation could prompt the Fed to hold interest rates unchanged.

U.S. inflation has exceeded the 2% target for more than five years. PeRSIstent high inflation reinforces market expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, demanding higher risk premiums, weighing on U.S. Treasury prices and lifting yields.

In addition, the European Central Bank will announce its rate decision this Thursday, followed by a monetary‑policy press conference by President Lagarde. Markets have almost fully priced in a rate increase, with odds of a 25‑bASIs‑point hike near 100%.

Due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday, U.S. and Canadian stock markets are closed for the day. CME Group precious‑metal and U.S. crude‑oil futures will close early at 02:30 Beijing Time on the 8th; equity index futures will close early at 01:00 Beijing Time on the 8th. ICE Brent crude‑oil futures will close early at 01:30 Beijing Time on the 8th. Investors please take note.

On the daily chart, gold maintains weak momentum, with bulls and bears contesting around the $4400 level and prices consolidating near the 5‑day moving average. Daily indicators show MACD positive histogram shrinking, while RSI hovers near the 50 mark.

On the 1‑hour chart, BOLLinger Bands are narrowing and gold is consolidating around the middle band. Short‑term EMA5 and EMA10 have shifted from bearish alignment to convergence. MACD negative momentum bars have diminished and RSI has rebounded to near 43. For overnight short‑term trading, expect consolidation within $4365‑4440. A breakout higher targets $4450‑4465 or near $4480; a breakdown lower targets $4360‑4355 or near $4350.

Reminder: No major economic data is scheduled for release tonight.

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