On Tuesday, spot gold opened at $4653.14 per ounce and reached an intraday peak of $4696.34 per ounce amid wide‑ranging swings. Bullish momentum faded and price dipped as low as $4605.52 per ounce, failing to extend the previous day’s nearly 1% gain. It later rebounded to recoup losses and closed at $4658.58 per ounce, edging up 0.15%. Fears over Middle‑East geopolitical tensions eased, oil prices tumbled more than 3% in a single day and safe‑haven buying for gold subsided. Nevertheless, a weaker US Dollar Index offered some support to gold. Ahead of Wednesday’s US PCE release, the US Dollar Index moved higher as market sentiment turned cautious, triggering a short‑term pullback in gold. Since breaking above $4500.00 per ounce on August 19, spot gold has entered overbought territory, with technical signals pointing to mounting corrective pressure. During the European session, spot gold fell to a low of $4613.21 per ounce. At press time, it had bounced modestly to around $4616.85 per ounce, with short‑term upward momentum softening.

The upcoming July US Core PCE inflation print may keep pressure on the Fed for further rate hikes. Markets forecast Core PCE to rise 3.3% year‑on‑year in July, alongside a 0.1% month‑on‑month increase, reveRSIng June’s 0.1% decline. The PCE Price Index stands among the most important financial‑market indicators and serves as the Fed’s primary gauge for assessing inflation trends and shaping monetary policy. Overall, July PCE figures are expected to show peRSIstent elevated price pressures still above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, driven largely by high energy costs and lingering Middle‑East conflicts. In addition, Wednesday’s preliminary releases for US Q2 GDP and July Durable Goods Orders may partially offset gold’s sensitivity to inflation data.

In an article published Tuesday, Boston Fed President Collins stated that she would require further evidence inflation is heading toward the 2% target to support holding the federal‑funds‑rate target range at 3.50%‑3.75%. Collins is not a voting FOMC member this year. She backed the FOMC’s decision to keep rates unchanged last month, noting that a moderately restrictive policy stance allows the committee to adapt to shifting economic conditions and return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe. Collins emphASIsed that without evidence of sustained cooling inflation, monetary policy should be tightened promptly to secure price stability in a timely manner.

Short‑term gold outlook: upside resistance sits at $4775.00 per ounce, while downside support is seen at $4500.00 per ounce.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

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