Spot gold opened at $4,372.12 per troy ounce in Wednesday’s ASIan session, hitting an intraday low of $4,362.40. The price fluctuated and consolidated around the $4,400 threshold, peaking at $4,415.44. As of press time, gold was trading near $4,405, posting a 0.85% intraday gain.
The U.S. Dollar Index edged higher with mild intraday swings, reaching a high of 99.90 and a low of 99.79, and was last quoted at 99.87, up 0.06%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.4 bASIs points to 4.213%; the 10-year yield dropped 0.9 bASIs points to 4.681%; the 30-year yield slipped 1.3 bASIs points to close at 5.241%.
International crude oil benchmarks traded at elevated levels on Wednesday. WTI crude stood at $83.56 per barrel, up 0.24%; Brent crude was quoted at $89.28 per barrel, rising 0.23%. U.S. natural gas CFD was priced at $2.792 per million British thermal units, gaining 1.601%.
In equities, China’s A-share market opened lower and moved higher overall, paring gains after a rally in the afternoon, with the ChiNext Index surging more than 2% intraday. Total turnover across the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan at the close. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 12.58 points, or 0.32%, to 3,946.68; the Shenzhen Component Index added 154.99 points, or 1.09%, to 14,414.43; the ChiNext Index climbed 52.92 points, or 1.49%, to 3,602.08.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened lower and consolidated throughout the session, with a maximum drop of over 300 points. Total market turnover reached HK$216.779 billion at the closing bell. The Hang Seng Index fell 212.65 points, or 0.83%, to 25,440.17; the Hang Seng Tech Index lost 47.98 points, or 0.99%, to 4,776.44; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 81.83 points, or 0.96%, to 8,446.27; the Hang Seng Red Chip Index gained 34.17 points, or 0.83%, to 4,156.10.
European major stock indexes opened in the afternoon: Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.21%, the UK FTSE 100 dipped 0.01%, France’s CAC 40 edged up 0.05%, the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.27%, Spain’s IBEX 35 gained 0.30%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 0.32%.
In the afternoon, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed 0.25% higher at 955.08 yuan per gram, while Ag(T+D) settled up 1.66% at 16,110.0 yuan per kilogram.
William Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, argued in a recent article that newly appointed Fed Chair Walsh has gotten off to a rocky start. His reluctance to clarify the path of monetary policy adjustment amid shifting economic outlooks has triggered widespread market confusion. If both the central bank and markets are scrambling for policy signals, policy expectations will become utterly unpredictable, pushing up risk premiums and eroding the Federal Reserve’s credibility.
Fed Governor Susan Collins stated that U.S. low-income households are struggling to make ends meet amid elevated living costs driven by the Iran conflict, with businesses and families in the U.S. Northeast squeezed by inflation that has run above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years. She voiced readiness to back a rate hike as early as September if economic data warrants tightening.
The U.S. unadjusted July CPI will be released tonight. Market consensus forecasts the headline annual rate at 3.4%, versus the prior reading of 3.50%; the monthly rate is expected at 0.1%, compared with -0.40% previously. The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is projected at 2.50%, down from 2.60%, and the core month-on-month reading is tipped to rise 0.20% from 0.00%. Both headline and core CPI are set to ease by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year from June, yet annual inflation will remain well above the Fed’s 2% objective.
Given the soft nonfarm payrolls print last week, a weaker CPI reading could further scale back market bets on Fed rate hikes within the year. An in-line CPI print would grant the Fed more observation time, while a modest upside surprise in core inflation could reignite the cooling tightening expectations.
Analysts noted that the core focus of July CPI is to gauge whether U.S. inflation rebounds following a rally in energy prices, and whether core inflation maintains its disinflation trend. Core CPI remains the decisive driver for Fed policy pricing. CME FedWatch data currently prices the probability of a September rate hike at roughly 50%, with higher odds penciled in for October or December.
On the geopolitical front, since U.S. and Israeli-led airstrikes on Iran in February closed the Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal slot fees have skyrocketed. The average auction rate for canal transit in August hit $1.1 million, 16 times the figure a year ago, with a peak bid reaching $3.78 million.
Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted crude oil shipping in the Black Sea, putting two critical Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints under simultaneous strain. Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, security risks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait continue to disrupt energy transportation. U.S. energy authorities warned that supply disruptions linked to Middle Eastern hostilities could peRSIst through the end of next year, putting global fuel prices under further upward pressure.
On the daily chart, gold traded sideways above the 5-day and 100-day moving averages. Bulls and bears remained cautious ahead of the pivotal evening data release, with the price consolidating around the $4,400 mark. On daily technical indicators, the positive MACD histogram continued to expand, and the RSI hovered steadily at the 67 level.
On the 1-hour timeframe, gold fluctuated between the middle and upper bands of the BOLLinger Bands. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 maintained a bullish alignment, the MACD positive momentum bars stayed sustained, and the RSI flattened out near the 58 level. Intraday trading guidance for tonight hinges on the market reaction to U.S. CPI. A breakout above the $4,350–$4,435 range would open upside targets at $4,450–$4,475 or near $4,500; downside support targets lie at $4,335–$4,315 or around $4,300.
Key Economic Data & Events to Watch Tonight:
20:30 U.S. July Unadjusted CPI YoY
20:30 U.S. July Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM
20:30 U.S. July Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM
20:30 U.S. July Unadjusted Core CPI YoY
22:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the Week Ended August 7
22:30 U.S. EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventories for the Week Ended August 7
22:30 U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories for the Week Ended August 7
01:00 Next Day U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction High Yield (August 12)
01:00 Next Day U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Bid-to-Cover Ratio (August 12)
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