Spot gold surged briefly then retreated during last night's US trading session, hitting an intraday low of $4,356.45 per troy ounce. It peaked at $4,434.80 per troy ounce in early trading yesterday and finally closed at $4,368.07 per troy ounce, down 0.50%. Spot silver rallied and pulled back in tandem, settling at $64.606 per troy ounce with a 1.61% decline.
In Wednesday's ASIan trading session today, spot gold opened at $4,372.12 per troy ounce and dipped to a low of $4,362.40 per troy ounce. Gold trended upward amid continuous volatility in the morning session and broke above the $4,400 threshold again, reaching a high of $4,410.72 per troy ounce. At the time of writing, gold was consolidating around $4,408, posting a 0.91% gain.
The US Dollar Index traded within a narrow range overnight, hitting an intraday high of 99.90 and a low of 99.73, and closed flat at 99.82. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury note fell by 2.7 bASIs points to close at 4.217%; the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped 1.7 bASIs points to 4.69%; the 30-year US Treasury yield declined 1.3 bASIs points to 5.241%.
With uncertain shipping prospects in the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil benchmarks fluctuated overnight. WTI crude oil closed at $83.35 per barrel, up 1.27%; Brent crude oil settled at $89.08 per barrel, rising 1.39%. US natural gas CFDs finished at $2.748 per million British thermal units, down 1.187%.
All three major US stock indexes closed lower last night. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 184.07 points or 0.34% to 53,791.91; the S&P 500 Index lost 25.00 points or 0.32% to 7,728.11; the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 159.91 points or 0.60% to 26,445.45.
Most major European stock indexes closed higher. Germany's DAX 30 Index rose 0.17% to 26,399.32; the UK FTSE 100 slipped 0.16% to 10,844.60; France's CAC 40 edged down 0.13% to 8,714.94; the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.25% to 6,551.85; Spain's IBEX 35 advanced 0.15% to 20,213.89; Italy's FTSE MIB added 0.13% to 53,731.00.
Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au(T+D) closed 0.58% lower at RMB 947.2 per gram overnight, while Ag(T+D) fell 0.92% to RMB 15,701.0 per kilogram. In early trading today, Au(T+D) dipped 0.18% to RMB 951.0 per gram, and Ag(T+D) dropped 0.25% to RMB 15,808.0 per kilogram.
The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 1.712 tons from the previous trading day, with total holdings standing at 1,022.672 tons. The world's top silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, added 106.82 tons of silver, bringing its total holdings to 15,313.54 tons.
The central parity rate of RMB in the foreign exchange market today: USD/CNY was set at 6.7882, down 18 pips (RMB appreciated); EUR/CNY at 7.8095, down 58 pips; HKD/CNY at 0.86515, down 3.5 pips; GBP/CNY at 9.1407, down 49 pips; AUD/CNY at 4.7793, up 29 pips; CAD/CNY at 4.8574, up 24 pips; 100JPY/CNY at 4.2548, down 19 pips; RMB/RUB at 12.2256, down 46 pips; NZD/CNY at 3.9767, down 61 pips; RMB/MYR at 0.6040, up 3.5 pips; CHF/CNY at 8.3461, down 156 pips; SGD/CNY at 5.2884, up 8 pips.
The latest data released overnight showed that US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July came in at 99.8, versus the previous reading of 97.4. The US ADP private payrolls change for the week ending July 25 was 8,250, compared with the prior figure of 15,000. Annualized US existing home sales in July stood at 4.06 million units, against the market expectation of 4.05 million, and the previous reading was revised upward from 4.09 million to 4.13 million.
US small business confidence climbed to a one-year high with notable improvements in hiring plans and business owners’ capital expenditure outlays. Despite elevated uncertainties, entrepreneurs expect business conditions to keep improving. US existing home sales dropped to a three-month low, as high housing prices and peRSIstent mortgage rates continued to weigh on the real estate sector. Weak sales data reflected a lingering downturn in the housing market.
US-Iran negotiations hit another deadlock amid escalating maritime conflicts: Houthi militants attacked a Saudi merchant vessel and caused crew fatalities, while the US military directly struck cargo ships suspected of violating Iran’s blockade. Iran explicitly stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen unless the US accepts ceasefire terms and adjusts its policies.
US President Donald Trump recently stated that Iran’s inflation rate has hit 300% and its currency is virtually worthless. Iran is even unable to pay salaries to its soldiers, and the US has full control over Iranian funds. The US can deploy overwhelming military force against Iran with no shortages in missiles and ammunition.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi commented that few believed Iran could withstand pressure from the US, Israel and other Western powers. Iran’s resistance shattered the US illusion of forcing Iran’s unconditional surrender at the early stage of the conflict, and Washington resorted to begging for negotiations just 20 days into the war.
Russia launched intensive airstrikes across multiple regions of Ukraine yesterday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia deployed ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles to strike Zaporizhzhia, with Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk also under aerial assault. Zelenskyy warned that Vladimir Putin was preparing to further escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict instead of pursuing peace talks.
Analysts pointed out that the recent rally in gold was mainly driven by technical buying and rising bullish market sentiment, coupled with inflows into Chinese gold ETFs that prompted investors to increase allocation to precious metals. Markets are now awaiting the release of US July CPI data tonight. Soft employment data previously printed; a further cooling in inflation would ease the Federal Reserve’s concerns over price pressures and dampen expectations for additional interest rate hikes, which would be positive for gold prices.
On the flip side, heightened US-Iran tensions cast a shadow over the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Rising energy prices may reignite inflation risks, and surging oil costs would add pressure on the Fed to maintain a tightening monetary stance.
Gold pulled back from recent highs earlier due to short-term liquidity tightening and US dollar strength, yet the fundamental drivers supporting its long-term uptrend remain intact, including mounting global debt, widening fiscal deficits, central banks’ de-dollarization push and geopolitical fragmentation worldwide.
On the daily chart, gold rallied then retreated yesterday, though both its high and low points moved upward. Gold broke above the $4,400 mark and crossed the 100-day moving average in today’s session, signaling dominant bullish sentiment. From daily technical indicators, the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages maintained an upward bullish alignment, the positive MACD histogram kept expanding, and the RSI indicator advanced toward the overbought level near 70.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the BOLLinger Bands for gold have gradually narrowed their opening, and the price is hovering near the upper band. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 moving averages stay in a bullish upward trend; the positive MACD histogram rebounded after shrinking, and the RSI indicator edged up to around the 64 level. For intraday short-term trading, gold is expected to range between 4380 and 4420. A breakout above this zone would target 4430-4435 or near 4440 on the upside, while the downside support lies at 4370-4360 or around 4350.
Key Economic Data & Events to Watch Today:
14:00 Final July German CPI MoM
16:00 IEA Releases Monthly Oil Market Report
20:00 Tencent Q2 Earnings Conference Call
20:30 US July Unadjusted CPI YoY
20:30 US July Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM
20:30 US July Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM
20:30 US July Unadjusted Core CPI YoY
22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the Week Ended Aug 7
22:30 US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventories for the Week Ended Aug 7
22:30 US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories for the Week Ended Aug 7
01:00 Next Day US 10-Year Treasury Note Auction High Yield (Auction Date: Aug 12)
01:00 Next Day US 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Bid-to-Cover Ratio (Auction Date: Aug 12)
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