At the close of US trading on Tuesday, spot gold edged higher while spot silver posted a notable gain. The immediate inflation impact brought by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eased as oil prices retreated, lending overall support to the precious metals market. However, firm US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar continued to cap gold’s upside. At US market close, spot gold settled at $4358.20 per ounce, up 0.34% for the day; spot silver traded at $67.048 per ounce, gaining 1.57%. #GoldClosingReview#

(Source: FX168)

US Stocks Mixed, Tech Stocks Hit Fresh Highs

After surging on Monday driven by artificial intelligence themes, US equities closed mixed on Tuesday. The S&P 500 dipped 0.06 points, less than 0.1%, to 7764.64, still roughly 0.4% below its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 185.14 points, or 0.4%, to 51863.69. The Nasdaq Composite rose 122.18 points, or 0.5%, to 27244.28, marking another record closing peak. The Russell 2000 added 14.56 points, or 0.5%, to 2889.92.

European markets also traded mixed with a mild bullish bias. The pan-European STOXX 600 climbed 0.13% to 642.78. Germany’s DAX was nearly flat, edging up 0.02% to 25578.85. France’s CAC 40 rose 0.20% to 8154.91. The UK FTSE 100 dropped 0.29% to 10708.33, and Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 0.53% to 52371.54.

Repricing of Rate Cut Expectations, Focus on Fed Policy Path

The core pricing question for markets remains: Was the Fed’s September rate hike a one-off adjustment or the start of a new tightening cycle? Futures pricing once put the probability of another 25-bASIs-point hike in October near 53.1%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index hovered around 100.48, and the 10-year US Treasury yield stayed close to the 5.0% zone. These factors combined to restrain further gains in gold.

Markets will focus closely on a series of upcoming US economic data: the preliminary September US manufacturing and services PMI readings will be released at 9:45 AM ET on Wednesday. Weekly initial jobless claims are due at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday. August durable goods orders and the final September UniveRSIty of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will come out at 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET respectively on Friday. Stronger activity data and sticky price components may keep gold under pressure, while weaker data could clear the way for gold to break more decisively through the mid-$4,300 range.

Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium Eases, Falling Oil Prices Support Silver

The risk premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz has declined but not fully disappeared. Iran stated that it may restore shipping in the Gulf within days if the US lifts pressure and removes blockades on Iranian ports. Saudi Arabia has taken measures to resume exports via its east-west pipeline and Yanbu port. Brent crude briefly fell below $98 per barrel intraday before rebounding to settle around $99.25. Lower oil prices weakened the short-term inflation impulse that had previously supported gold.

This development supported equities and silver, yet gold’s safe-haven buying remained subdued, as markets believe falling oil prices do not fully eliminate inflationary pressures facing the Fed. In external markets, Nymex WTI crude moved lower, trading in the low-$90s per barrel. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5.0%, and the US Dollar Index edged slightly higher. The Kitco Global Index quantifies how much of gold’s current volatility stems from US dollar movements versus gold-specific market forces.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels for Gold and Silver

Technically, the next upside target for spot gold bulls is to reclaim the resistance zone of $4393.68 to $4400.00. A sustained breakout would open a move toward $4480.00 and then $4500.00. On the bearish side, a break below $4333.11 would target $4300.00, followed by the $4160.00–$4180.00 region. Gold’s first resistance lies at $4393.68, then $4400.00; initial support is at $4333.11, followed by $4300.00.

For spot silver, bulls’ next objective is to retake the $67.231–$68.000 zone. A breakout above this range would target $70.000 and the psychologically important $71.000 level. If silver falls below $65.898, bears will target the 50-day moving average near $63.280, then the $61.000–$62.000 area. Silver’s first resistance is $67.231, then $68.000; next support stands at $65.898, followed by $63.280.

Overall, gold remains suppressed in the short term by the US dollar and Treasury yields. Still, retreating oil prices have eased some inflation concerns, leaving silver and risk assets relatively stronger. Weaker US economic data in the days ahead may reopen upside for gold, while peRSIstently strong data could keep precious metals under dual pressure from yields and the US dollar.