Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett has released his latest 2030 gold price forecast, arguing the precious metal is poised to reclaim the $5000 per ounce mark.

(Source: Finbold Screenshot)

In a report released on September 21, the Wall Street analyst projected gold could reach $5600 per ounce by 2030.

This target is lower than Brackett’s prior forecast of $6100 per ounce. Even so, he maintains a bullish outlook for gold over the long run.

The revision mainly stems from a notable shift in US interest rate expectations. Markets are now pricing in possibilities of further rate hikes, whereas earlier expectations centered largely on rate cuts.

Bernstein stated the updated forecast reflects the impact of a higher real interest rate environment. Real interest rates stood at roughly 1.7% earlier this year and have now climbed to around 2.7%, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Nevertheless, the firm still believes gold prices can keep rising even as real interest rates trend higher. This view is based on gold’s resilience shown over the past few years, where gold remained strong even during periods when monetary tightening historically weighs on gold prices.

Bernstein continues to identify peRSIstent central bank gold purchases as the most important structural factor supporting long-term gold prices.

The institution notes that many major gold reserve holders still allocate a relatively low share of their reserves to gold compared with historical benchmarks.

Countries including China, Japan and Saudi Arabia hold gold below 10% of their foreign exchange reserves, meaning they still have room to further diveRSIfy reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar and other major reserve currencies.

Central Banks Keep Adding Gold Reserves

This view is backed by broader industry surveys. The World Gold Council’s latest central bank gold reserve survey shows most central banks expect global gold reserves to keep growing over the next year, while many expect the share of US dollar-denominated assets in reserves to decline.

This trend has been one of the key pillars of the gold bull market since 2022, helping offset pressure from gold ETF outflows and rising bond yields in certain periods.

Historically, gold prices tend to move inversely to real interest rates. When real yields rise, fixed-income assets generally become more attractive because gold itself generates no income.

However, Bernstein points out that global gold ETF holdings have remained stable overall this year, and gold has demonstrated strong resilience even after the Fed’s latest rate hike.

The firm believes investor demand for gold will continue, driven by sustained central bank buying, global reserve diveRSIfication and long-term fiscal pressures.

Bernstein argues the biggest risk to this forecast is a slowdown in central bank gold purchases. In addition, the institution warns peRSIstently high energy prices could keep inflation elevated and prompt central banks to raise rates further, putting pressure on gold prices by lifting the US dollar and bond yields.