North America News - US President Donald Trump gave a clear timeline on Wednesday (September 9) for the months-long US-Iran conflict. He predicted hostilities would “end immediately” after the US midterm elections in November. Meanwhile, as Brent crude reclaimed the $100 per barrel mark, he admitted energy prices were unlikely to fall notably in the near term, yet claimed oil prices would “drop sharply” once the war ends, and US gasoline prices could eventually fall below $2 per gallon. #IranCrisisTrack#
Speaking to reporters before departing Andrews Joint Base for a Republican midterm campaign event in Texas, Trump said: “I think this war will end immediately after the election because they can’t sustain it.”
Trump: No Change to Iran Strategy for Midterm Elections
Faced with soaring oil prices and mounting domestic cost-of-living pressure in the US, Trump stated he would not alter his Iran strategy for the midterm elections, and the US was not actively seeking to resume talks with Tehran at present.
Trump said the situation had “gone too far”, and the issues the US sought to resolve were no longer limited to Iran’s nuclear programme. Some matters that “could not have been on the negotiating table three months ago” would now become potential topics for discussion.
Nevertheless, he did not completely rule out a diplomatic solution. Trump said negotiations might still take place in the future, but “that is not what we are pursuing right now.”
When asked why he believed the war would end quickly after the midterms, Trump linked it to US domestic politics. He claimed Iran was attempting to influence the US election, hoping to see a more lenient administration come to power.
“They are trying desperately to influence the election so we elect weak people who will let them get nuclear weapons,” Trump remarked.
Brent Back Above $100; Trump: Oil Prices Will Plunge After Election
Trump made these remarks as international oil prices broke above a key psychological threshold once again.
With renewed escalation in military clashes between the US and Iran, Brent crude futures climbed above $101 per barrel on Wednesday, marking the first time it topped $100 since July. US WTI crude also rose above $96 per barrel intraday. Escalating military operations and shipping safety risks near the Strait of Hormuz forced global markets to price in a higher supply risk premium for crude oil.
When asked how to explain the sharp oil price rally to Americans, Trump said: “I think it is easy to explain. You just ask: Do you want Iran to have nuclear weapons? The answer is no.”
Trump then predicted oil prices would fall rapidly once the midterm elections conclude.
“As soon as the election is over, oil prices will start dropping substantially,” he stated.
At the same time, he acknowledged it may take longer for energy prices to return to much lower levels. Regarding US gasoline prices, Trump said the ultimate goal was to push them below $2 per gallon, though the process “may take a little longer than the midterm elections.”
This statement means that even by Trump’s own assessment, US consumers will likely continue to face high energy prices for at least the next two months.
US-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Month; Energy Market Risks Reignite
The US-Iran conflict has now entered its seventh month, with fresh escalation in military actions targeting oil tankers and energy transport infrastructure recently.
Trump said on Wednesday that recent US strikes on Iranian targets were part of proactive operations and warned more actions would follow. Meanwhile, Iran has continued retaliatory strikes against targets in the PeRSIan Gulf, fuelling market fears of further disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump attributed oil’s move back above $100 per barrel to the necessary cost of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. He also said Iran’s economic and domestic situation was “very bad”, leading him to conclude Tehran could not sustain the current standoff indefinitely.
Trump has repeatedly said a deal between the US and Iran might come soon, yet the conflict has not shown clear signs of ending. His latest comments show he now prefers to force Iranian concessions through sustained military and economic pressure rather than prioritising diplomatic negotiations.
High Oil Prices Become a Key Midterm Election Variable
For Trump and the Republican Party, peRSIstently high energy prices are gradually shifting from a foreign policy and military issue into domestic political pressure.
Oil above $100 not only pushes US gasoline prices higher directly, but may also reinforce inflation pressures via transportation, manufacturing and commodity costs. With the Fed policy outlook already shifting due to renewed inflation concerns, rising energy prices may further alter rate expectations and pricing in financial markets.
Trump’s explicit linkage of war termination and oil price declines to the November midterm elections has drawn particular attention. This means with less than two months until voting, the Iran war, oil prices, inflation and cost of living will likely remain major factors shaping US voter sentiment.
Nevertheless, market analysts remain cautious about the prediction that oil prices will drop sharply after the midterms. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said he sees no guarantee prices will fall by then.
Trump made the remarks at Andrews Joint Base before boarding Air Force One for a Republican midterm rally in Texas. His trip was briefly delayed when the aircraft’s emergency slide was deployed during a crew check.