Spot gold (XAU/USD) edged higher during Tuesday’s ASIan morning session and is now trading around the $4,420 level. Last Friday, US August non‑farm payrolls came in well above expectations, boosting market bets for a Fed rate‑hike this month. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar continued to weigh on the non‑interest‑bearing asset gold.
US data released last week showed non‑farm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market consensus of 56,000, while the prior reading was revised upward to 21,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Solid employment figures prompted markets to price in higher odds of a September rate‑hike.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign around a 60‑percent probability to a rate increase at next week’s Fed policy meeting, up from roughly 50 % before Friday’s jobs report.
Strong Payrolls Bolster Rate‑Hike Bets, Gold Remains Under Near‑Term Pressure
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted recent performance in gold and silver has diverged notably from energy prices. Robust US employment data last Friday pushed bond yields higher and reinforced expectations for a September 16 Fed rate‑hike, sending precious metals lower.
With rate expectations heating up again, gold faces two headwinds in the short run. Higher bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold. In addition, peRSIstent Fed‑tightening bets could lift the US dollar further, adding extra pressure on dollar‑denominated gold.
Attention will quickly turn to this week’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Hot inflation readings could amplify September‑hike expectations, underpin the US dollar and cap gold. Conversely, a clear cooling in inflation would dampen rate‑hike odds and offer gold some breathing room.
Societe Generale: Gold’s Bull Market Enters a "New Phase"
Despite near‑term headwinds from rate‑hike expectations, several institutions argue gold’s medium‑to‑long‑term structural bull market remains intact.
Societe Generale holds the view that gold has “entered a new phase of its 2026 bull market”, one transitioning from purely speculative momentum toward broader, sustained structural allocation demand.
The bank points out that this gold rally was initially driven by geopolitical shocks and has evolved into a peRSIstent allocation trend. Positioning demand has risen across physical gold, futures and options markets. Market participants have expanded from retail investors to professional asset managers and derivatives traders, pointing to a broadening capital base behind gold.
Higher Short‑Term Volatility, $4,410 Becomes Market Focus
UOB Group strategists warn gold remains highly sensitive to US macroeconomic data. Gold fell more than 0.9 % last Friday to settle near $4,429.98 and posted a weekly loss, as stronger‑than‑expected employment data raised the odds of a Fed rate‑increase as soon as this month.
Gold is therefore in a regime where short‑term bearish drivers coexist with long‑term bullish fundamentals. On one side, labor‑market resilience, inflation pressures and rate‑hike expectations weigh on prices. On the other, institutional allocations, geopolitical risks and structural demand underpin the medium‑and‑long‑term outlook.
Ahead of this week’s PPI and CPI prints, gold may swing sharply on September Fed‑policy expectations. Further corrective pressure will emerge if inflation beats forecasts. A meaningful cooling in inflation would rapidly scale back hike bets and deliver fresh rebound momentum for gold.
Gold Awaits FOMC Guidance
Gold edged lower on Monday, though holiday‑thinned trading kept price moves limited. Markets widely expect gold to consolidate around current levels ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting while awaiting clearer monetary‑policy signals.
From a technical perspective, $4,546 coincides with the daily 200‑period Simple Moving Average (SMA 200), forming major overhead resistance. $4,250 remains key support for preserving the broader bullish structure. As long as this support holds, gold’s broader targets sit within the $4,776‑$4,890 range.
Key technical levels to watch: supports at $4,380, $4,250 and $4,000; resistances at $4,500, $4,546 and $4,700. A break above $4,546 opens scope for higher levels. A decisive drop below $4,250 would put the medium‑term bullish structure to the test.
Silver Remains in the Middle of Its Range‑Bound Pattern
Silver closed nearly flat on Monday, lingering in the middle of its recent range. Holiday‑light trading deprived prices of clear directional momentum. Market participants are waiting for silver to break major technical boundaries before initiating new positions.
Technically, silver needs a daily close above $70 to confirm continuation of the bullish trend. A pullback toward $64 support represents a critical line that bulls must defend to maintain the constructive outlook.
Key silver levels for today: supports at $64, $54, $50; resistances at $70, $80, $83.91, $85, $100 and $120. Sustained rejection below $70 will perpetuate range‑bound conditions. A valid breakout can unlock substantial upside potential.
Crude Oil Moves Back Above Opening Levels
After gapping higher on Monday, crude oil gave up early‑session gains before buying interest emerged to push prices back above opening levels ahead of the close. Price action shows solid absorption above the important $90 support zone.
If rebound momentum peRSIsts, oil may retest and reclaim prior swing highs at $93.48 and $95. In the near term, $90 acts as the core dividing line for bulls. A break below this level would bring successive supports at $85, $80, $77.13, $70 and $67.20 into play.
Key crude‑oil levels for today: supports at $90, $85, $80, $77.13, $70 and $67.20; resistance at $95. Overall, crude oil remains in a recovery phase. Sustained stabilization above $90 will determine whether the rebound can extend further.
