During Thursday’s (Sep 3) US trading session, spot gold and spot silver both posted sharp gains. After Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered dovish rate‑policy remarks, US Treasury yields retreated and the US dollar weakened, creating room for precious metals to extend Wednesday’s rebound.
Spot gold closed Thursday skyrocketing $84.84, or 1.93%, at $4472.67 per troy ounce.
Spot silver closed Thursday up 2.52% at $66.959 per troy ounce.
Risk Sentiment Rises, Major Stock Indices Rally
North American equities closed broadly higher on Thursday, led by technology stocks, which lifted overall market risk sentiment notably. The S&P 500 rose 81.11 points, or 1.1%, to 7747.71; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 624.16 points, or 1.2%, to 53686.11; the Nasdaq Composite climbed 366.23 points, or 1.4%, to 26584.06.
European markets also finished higher. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.49% to 649.10; UK FTSE 100 advanced 0.70% to 10831.52; Germany’s DAX added 0.63% to 26003.32; France’s CAC 40 edged up 0.07% to 8286.40; Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.88% to 52245.47.
Waller’s Remarks Cool September Rate‑Hike Expectations
Fresh market pricing tilts back toward the Federal Reserve holding interest rates unchanged. Waller stated he would favour keeping rates steady if inflation data released next week continues to cool.
As a result, market‑implied odds of a September Fed rate‑hike fell from 63.2% on Wednesday to roughly 50.4%.
Nick Timiraos, the well‑known financial journalist dubbed “the new Fed correspondent”, noted that Governor Waller’s core stance has not fundamentally shifted since July, yet his bias has clearly pivoted. Previously he leaned toward hawkish concerns and supported rate hikes; now he appears relatively optimistic and prefers keeping rates on hold. The final outcome will hinge on August inflation data.
The US 2‑year Treasury yield slipped to 4.34%, and the 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.77%. Nevertheless, the latest services data was not uniformly dovish: the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index rose to 55.4 in August, up from 54.1 in July; the Prices‑Paid Index climbed to 72.6, hitting its highest reading since October 2022; the employment sub‑index remained in contraction territory at 47.8.
This means Friday’s August Non‑Farm Payrolls report and the September 11 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print will constitute the next critical data set shaping Fed market pricing. For gold, current signals are constructive, yet much depends on whether subsequent figures keep validating rate‑cut expectations. Lower yields and a weaker US dollar support gold’s rebound, while resilient services‑sector demand and sticky input costs mean inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated.
Precious‑Metals Rebound Driven by Yield Retreating
The core driver behind this round of precious‑metals gains is a temporary pause in yield‑led pressure, rather than a resolution of inflation issues. Spot gold rebounded from Wednesday’s low of $4281.70 and touched an intraday peak of $4511.70, returning close to the $4489.87‑$4538.77 pullback zone highlighted in recent technical analysis. Spot silver advanced as high as $67.60 before pulling back; it has reclaimed the key watershed level of $66.00 but has yet to break through the more significant $67.21‑$68.74 resistance band.
In the short run, gold and silver trajectories will still hinge on Non‑Farm Payrolls data. A soft employment report will validate the “rate‑hike‑pause” trade represented by Waller’s remarks. By contrast, stronger‑than‑expected jobs and wage data could hand the upper hand back to the US dollar and short‑dated yields, capping further upside for precious metals.
Strait of Hormuz Risks Continue Underpinning Safe‑Haven Demand
Geopolitically, the Strait of Hormuz remains a major channel influencing crude‑oil prices, inflation expectations and safe‑haven demand, though market reaction on Thursday moderated compared with earlier in the week. Iran launched missiles toward Kuwait in retaliation for US bombing strikes, and conflicts escalated further after US forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz.
For crude oil, early‑session gains faded and prices finished little changed. WTI crude closed at $91.30 per barrel; Brent crude settled at $95.52 per barrel. This environment remains supportive for gold: Strait of Hormuz risks sustain some defensive buying interest, yet crude oil trading near six‑week highs keeps inflation pressures elevated and limits how far Fed‑eASIng expectations can lift gold prices.
Key Technical Levels Become Short‑Term Focus
From a technical perspective, spot‑gold bulls’ next objective is to reclaim the $4489.87 resistance level. A sustained break above this level opens a move toward $4532.67, with a further target at $4538.77. On the bearish side, a break below $4369.00 would expose subsequent downside targets at $4301.00 and $4263.00. Immediate resistance stands at $4489.87, followed by $4532.67; immediate support sits at $4369.00, then $4301.00.
For spot silver, bulls need to break $67.21 to resume advancing, with subsequent targets at $68.74 and $72.08. If bears push price below $65.26, further downside toward $63.70 and $62.57 may unfold. Immediate resistance is $67.21, followed by $68.74; next support is $65.26, then $63.70.
Across external markets, Nymex WTI crude trades around $91.30 per barrel, Brent crude around $95.52 per barrel, the benchmark 10‑year US Treasury yield stands at roughly 4.77%, and the US Dollar Index remains weak. Precious‑metals market participants typically monitor both US‑dollar dynamics and gold‑specific drivers to judge whether this rally owes more to exchange‑rate movements or sustained internal buying within the gold market.