Spot gold opened at $4,335.39 per ounce during Wednesday’s ASIan session. The price edged higher amid intraday swings, hitting a low of $4,324.51 and a high of $4,362.71. At press time, gold traded around $4,355, marking an intraday gain of roughly 0.47%.

Markets remained cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes tonight. The US Dollar Index trended lower throughout the day, falling to a low of 99.40 and last quoted at 99.43, down 0.22%. The 2-year US Treasury yield dropped 1.7 bASIs points to 4.157%, while the 10-year yield edged down 1.4 bASIs points to 4.691%.

International crude oil fluctuated near one-week highs. WTI crude stood at $84.59 per barrel (+0.13%), Brent crude at $91.64 per barrel (+0.46%), and US natural gas CFDs at $2.809 per MMBtu (-0.355%).

Following broad losses across European and US equities overnight, ASIa-Pacific stock markets traded lower. The Nikkei 225 closed down 2,134.31 points, or 3.16%, at 65,326.42. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 398.66 points, or 5.8%, to 6,471.17.

China’s A-share major indices opened lower and extended losses. Total turnover across the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses reached 2.51 trillion yuan, over 110 billion yuan higher than the previous session, with more than 5,000 stocks declining. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 95.88 points, or 2.4%, to 3,894.42. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 732.34 points, or 5.01%, to 13,890.15. The ChiNext Index lost 232.07 points, or 6.26%, to 3,473.49.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened lower then rebounded. Total market turnover stood at HK$253.175 billion. The Hang Seng Index rose 23.92 points, or 0.09%, to 25,495.07. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 57.13 points, or 1.21%, to 4,682.05. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 18.01 points, or 0.21%, to 8,471.21. The Hang Seng China Red Chip Index dropped 29.83 points, or 0.71%, to 4,153.21.

European major indices opened this afternoon as follows: Germany’s DAX 30 -0.01%, UK FTSE 100 -0.01%, France CAC 40 +0.11%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.09%, Spain IBEX 35 0.00%, Italy FTSE MIB +0.09%.

This afternoon, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed down 0.97% at 944.95 yuan per gram, and Ag(T+D) fell 3.74% to 15,399.0 yuan per kilogram.

Fresh data released today: UK July RPI MoM 0.6% (forecast 0.80%, prior 0.30%); UK July CPI MoM 0.3% (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.10%); UK July CPI YoY 2.9% (forecast 2.9%, prior 2.60%); Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account 35.1 billion euros (prior 25.1 billion euros); Eurozone July final CPI YoY 2.9%, matching forecast and prior reading; Eurozone July final CPI MoM 0.2%, matching forecast and prior reading.

Analysts note that although UK inflation climbed from 2.6% to 2.9% in July, the uptick is unlikely to trigger a BoE rate hike. Domestic price pressures are eASIng, core inflation continued to cool in July, labour market slack remains below 2022 levels, and higher energy costs are not expected to generate meaningful second-round effects in the coming months.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned at a “Global Economic Outlook” panel this afternoon that Europe must not fall behind as artificial intelligence reshapes the global economy. Europe largely missed the first digital revolution and cannot afford to repeat the same mistake with AI.

The decades-old global nuclear security architecture is showing cracks. The US government’s latest National Defense Strategy downplays “extended deterrence” while urging allies to bear greater defence responsibilities. South Korea, Japan and several European countries are therefore pursuing greater strategic autonomy.

For decades, the US “nuclear umbrella” assured allies they could achieve security without developing nuclear weapons. Trump’s push for higher allied defence spending does not mean these nations have decided to build nuclear arms, yet shifts in security policy risk triggering spillover effects.

Statistics show nuclear-armed states hold more than 12,000 warheads globally, over 9,000 of which are in military stockpiles. Roughly 4,012 are deployed on missiles and aircraft, and up to 2,200 remain on high alert for launch within minutes. The US and Russia together own around 83% of deployable warheads. Nuclear ambitions across nations create new risks and fuel an arms race.

Reports state Iran has warned PeRSIan Gulf states that any assistance or facilitation offered to US military forces will be deemed collaboration with US troops. As US-Iran diplomatic mediation hits an impasse, Iran is considering radical measures to gain leverage. Tehran may expand retaliation to US military assets in Europe and critical undersea fibre-optic cables.

The Federal Reserve will release its July FOMC meeting minutes at 02:00 tomorrow (Thursday) Beijing time. This release carries greater-than-usual importance amid reduced forward policy guidance from the Fed. At the July meeting, the Fed held rates steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range for the fifth consecutive time, yet three members supported a rate hike.

Divisions within the Fed have widened. More hawkish officials argue current policy is not restrictive enough and higher rates are needed to further curb inflation. Others prefer to wait, but may back tightening if inflation fails to improve noticeably. Most market analysts expect hawkish language in the minutes.

However, recent US July non-farm payrolls showed falling employment and a shrinking labour force, retail sales dropped 0.6% month-on-month, and consumer confidence weakened markedly. These figures may shape the Fed’s economic assessment in the minutes, making discussions over inflation risks the key market focus.

CME FedWatch data prices a 65% probability that rates remain unchanged at the September meeting and a 35% chance of a 25-bASIs-point hike, down from above 70% previously. Hawkish signals in the minutes could lift US Treasury yields and support the US dollar, weighing on international gold prices.

On the daily chart, gold rebounded modestly intraday but failed to break above the 5-day moving average. The 5-day, 10-day and 100-day moving averages are tightly intertwined, forming resistance around $4,360–$4,380. A break above $4,380 could open a retest above $4,400, while near-term support lies in the $4,300–$4,320 zone. Sharp volatility is expected upon the release of Fed minutes tonight. On daily indicators, MACD positive momentum has weakened, and RSI hovers near the 60 level.

On the 1-hour chart, BOLLinger Bands continue to contract as gold rebounds toward the middle band. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 have formed a bullish crossover yet are flattening. MACD negative momentum is fading, and RSI has risen to roughly 46. For tonight’s short-term trading, watch market reaction to the FOMC minutes. A breakout outside the $4,320–$4,385 range could target $4,400–$4,415 or $4,435 to the upside, and $4,310–$4,290 or $4,270 to the downside.

Key economic data and events tonight:

22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (week ending Aug 14)

22:30 US EIA Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (week ending Aug 14)

22:30 US EIA Weekly Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories (week ending Aug 14)

02:00 (next day) Federal Reserve releases FOMC meeting minutes