ASIa Pacific News Service – The Wall Street Journal of the United States published an exclusive report on Tuesday (August 18, local time), citing U.S. officials that President Donald Trump is urging aides to arrange a meeting with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un as early as this autumn. The move aims to restart a high-profile diplomatic initiative launched during his first presidential term: persuading Kim Jong Un to abandon the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's nuclear weapons programme.
(Screenshot Source: The Wall Street Journal)
The report states that officials said Trump has privately discussed arranging face-to-face talks with Kim Jong Un during his upcoming trip to ASIa. The visit may take place in November, when world leaders will gather in Shenzhen, China for the APEC (ASIa-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit.
The Wall Street Journal noted that although formal preparations for the face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong Un have not yet begun, Trump views it as an opportunity to resume dialogue with Pyongyang.
In June 2018, during his first term, Trump held a historic summit with Kim Jong Un in Singapore. However, the denuclearisation negotiations between the two sides broke down at their meeting in Vietnam the following February.
A few days before The Wall Street Journal released the report, Trump stated that the United States would "substantially" reduce military exercises with South Korea, citing his good relationship with the DPRK leader and South Korea's refusal to join the campaign against Iran.
Trump posted on social media on August 16 that he has asked the Department of Defense to significantly scale down the scale of joint military drills between the United States and South Korea. These exercises are "costly", with a large portion borne by the United States, while sending a "completely inappropriate and hostile signal" to the DPRK.
Trump said that considering he maintains a "very good relationship" with Kim Jong Un, he is dissatisfied that "the United States agreed long ago to take part in joint military drills with South Korea". Since it is too late to cancel the drills now, he has directed the Department of Defense to "substantially reduce" the scale of U.S.-ROK joint military exercises.
Trump pointed out at the end of the post that he recently asked South Korea to work with the United States to advance "Iran's denuclearisation", but the proposal was rejected by South Korea.
Analysts believe that behind Trump's push for another meeting with Kim Jong Un is not only the continuation of his "personal diplomacy" line from his first term, but also related to the ongoing changes in the geopolitical environment of Northeast ASIa.
In recent years, the DPRK has continued to advance its nuclear weapons and missile programmes, U.S.-DPRK relations have long remained deadlocked, and warming ties between the DPRK and Russia have further increased U.S. strategic pressure on the Korean Peninsula issue. If Trump can reopen direct communication channels with Pyongyang, it will help him demonstrate the outcomes of "transactional diplomacy" at the diplomatic level.
Nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that there remain substantial obstacles to the resumption of U.S.-DPRK negotiations. While the Singapore Summit delivered a historic breakthrough, the two sides held severe disagreements on core issues such as the sequence of DPRK denuclearisation steps and the lifting of sanctions, ultimately causing the Hanoi Summit to end without results. There remains considerable uncertainty over whether the DPRK is willing to engage in negotiations targeting "complete denuclearisation".
Notably, Trump's recent proposal to scale back U.S.-ROK joint military exercises is regarded as an important measure sending a conciliatory signal to the DPRK. Reducing military pressure may help ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and create room for diplomatic engagement.
At the same time, however, some groups within the United States and South Korea worry that excessive reduction of military presence may undermine the stability of the U.S.-ROK alliance and weaken deterrence against the DPRK.
From a market perspective, substantial détente in U.S.-DPRK relations may lower the Northeast ASIa risk premium, positively impacting South Korean assets, ASIan stock markets and regional investment sentiment. Yet if negotiations reach another deadlock, or even if the DPRK launches further military actions, safe-haven assets such as gold, the U.S. dollar and certain defensive assets may attract capital inflows.
At present, the proposed meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un is still at the preliminary advocacy stage. Its realisation hinges on whether both sides can find new room for interest exchange on key topics including denuclearisation, security guarantees and economic sanctions. Compared with his first presidential term, this diplomatic attempt faces a more complex international landscape, and its outcome will serve as a critical variable for observing the future security architecture of Northeast ASIa.