UBS states that although gold faced pressure from high opportunity costs in 2026, bullion could approach $5000 per ounce again in the first half of 2027 amid falling real interest rates, a weaker US dollar and peRSIstent purchases by central‑banks and sovereign institutions.

In its latest client note, the Swiss bank points out gold has broken out of its prior roughly $100 trading range and climbed above $4250 per ounce for the first time in two months. According to UBS, buying from Chinese institutions and ETF inflows have underpinned the latest rally. Meanwhile, recent joint efforts by the United States and Japan to stabilise the yen may also reduce risks of sell‑offs in US Treasury bonds.

Short‑Term Risks Remain

Nevertheless, UBS warns gold still faces multiple near‑term uncertainties. Bullion may come under pressure if US economic data stays strong, oil prices keep stoking inflation fears, or markets keep pricing in a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate path.

Bank strategists note that while market conditions may stay volatile, gold is backed by lasting medium‑to‑long‑term drivers. They therefore forecast gold to rise toward $5000 per ounce in H1 2027.

Real Interest Rates and the US Dollar as Key Variables

UBS believes falling real interest rates will reignite investor demand for gold. The bank expects inflation to cool gradually; the Fed will hold rates steady in 2026 and restart an eASIng cycle in 2027.

This should create a more favourable backdrop for gold. Downward‑shifted policy‑rate expectations usually push real yields lower, weigh on the US dollar and boost investment demand for gold. UBS also stresses the dollar may retain near‑term resilience, yet large US fiscal and current‑account deficits plus already high investor allocations to dollar‑denominated assets leave room for renewed dollar weakness.

Historically, a weaker dollar has strongly benefited gold. Renewed market focus on de‑dollarisation and diveRSIfied asset allocation will also support precious‑metal prices.

Central‑Bank Buying Provides a Price Floor

Beyond rate and exchange‑rate factors, sovereign gold purchases are forming a solid price floor. UBS says central‑bank demand remains a major pillar for the gold market even when private‑investment interest is muted. Annual gold purchases by central banks are expected to stay elevated as they seek long‑term reduction of exposure to dollar‑denominated assets.

Central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter. UBS internal estimates put full‑year 2026 central‑bank purchases between 750 tonnes and 1000 tonnes. These flows cannot alone drive dramatic price surges, yet they are enough to stabilise the market and offset pressure from weak segments such as jewellery demand.

Levels Near $4,000 May Offer Position‑Building Opportunities

UBS advises investors to separate short‑term trading risks from long‑term investment logic. A pullback to $4000 per ounce or below could eventually become an opportunity to build strategic exposure. For investors favouring physical assets, a single‑digit percentage allocation to gold within a well‑diveRSIfied portfolio remains appropriate.

Notably, on May 26 UBS cut its end‑2026 gold forecast from $5900 per ounce to $5500 per ounce, citing peRSIstent pressure from high US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar. Analysts Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon argued at that time that with real interest rates staying elevated, markets were repricing the “opportunity‑cost” concept, diminishing the appeal of non‑yield‑bearing gold.

黄金价格的波动受哪些因素影响？ 黄金的战略买点应该如何判断？ 2027年上半年黄金价格有望逼近5000美元/盎司的原因是什么？