The latest survey released by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) shows spot gold will trade near or above $4,500 per troy ounce by the end of 2026. LBMA polled 16 professional analysts in July, a month when gold repeatedly slipped below $4,000 per ounce. Even against that backdrop, the respondents’ average year-end forecast was more than 12% above the prevailing market price at the time.
The survey revealed the highest year-end gold price forecast among analysts stands at $5,100 per ounce, implying a further 15% upside from current levels, while the lowest prediction is $3,879 per ounce, $100 below the 2026 trough hit in early July. LBMA stated that mid-year market expectations have gradually aligned with gold’s actual performance in the first seven months.
## Full-Year Average Revised Upward to $4,604
LBMA now projects the 2026 full-year average gold price at $4,604 per ounce. Analysts’ forecasts for the second-half peak range from $4,872 to $5,800, with the most bearish individual low forecast at $3,450 per ounce. The association added that gold averaged $4,595.75 per ounce in the first seven months of 2026, $135 lower than the $4,741.97 full-year average predicted by 28 analysts in LBMA’s January survey.
LBMA wrote in the report that the core fundamental drivers for gold have not materially shifted: Middle East geopolitical tensions, U.S. inflation, the Federal Reserve’s policy path and peRSIstent central bank gold buying remain dominant catalysts. However, market focus has shifted notably, with far greater scrutiny on the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh. Among the 16 surveyed analysts, 5 flagged Iran as the top risk factor, 1 highlighted uninterrupted central bank gold accumulation, and the majority zeroed in on Fed policy responses to U.S. inflation prints.
## Geopolitical Risks and Rate Cut Expectations Remain Core Themes
LBMA’s annual precious metals analyst survey published on January 20 initially pegged the 2026 average gold price at $4,741.97 per ounce. Back then, analysts broadly expected gold to average 38% higher than 2025, underpinned by falling U.S. real interest rates, Fed monetary eASIng, global central banks diveRSIfying reserve assets away from the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical flashpoints reinforcing gold’s status as the world’s primary safe-haven asset.
That said, individual analyst outlooks diverge extremely widely. The total forecast range spans $3,700, with the most pessimistic full-year average at $3,450 per ounce and the ultra-bullish peak projection reaching $7,150 per ounce. LBMA noted this forecast band is 103% wider than gold’s actual price swing in 2025, and more than 200% broader than the forecast range from analysts at the start of last year.
## Sharp Divergence Across Institutional Outlooks
Julia Du, Commodity Strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, was the most bullish contributor to the survey. She forecasts gold will surge to $7,150 per ounce in 2026, with a full-year average target of $6,050, and identifies solid technical support around the $4,100 level. Du explained that 2026 will be marked by escalating geopolitical risks and robust safe-haven demand, keeping gold on a volatile but upward trajectory. Continuous central bank reserve purchases, higher portfolio allocations from institutional investors, resilient retail demand especially across Latin America, plus a cycle of Federal Reserve rate cuts will collectively underpin a bullish bias for bullion.
Robin Bhar, Founder of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, delivered the most downbeat forecast. He expects the 2026 average price to land around $4,000 per ounce, with major support at $3,500 and an annual high capped at $5,000. Bhar pointed out that compounding economic and political uncertainties — particularly concerns over Fed institutional independence — will keep gold a critical hedging tool. Lingering geopolitical hotspots will stoke inflation risks and sustain safe-haven inflows, while central bank buying, portfolio diveRSIfication and speculative long positioning will offer secondary downside protection.
Alexander Zumpfe, Precious Metals Trader at Heraeus, called for the lowest downside floor in the survey at $3,450 per ounce, yet still sees gold climbing as high as $5,200 within the year. Zumpfe commented that even with periodic profit-taking and consolidation phases, robust investment demand will form a strong buffer for gold prices. Overall, the LBMA mid-year survey signals a consensus long-term bullish tilt among institutions, while near-term volatility will hinge on geopolitical developments, Fed policy pricing and the pace of official sector gold purchases.