Spot gold opened at $4377.20 per troy ounce during Monday’s ASIan session. It spiked briefly to $4383.18 early in the session before drifting down to a low of $4341.82. At press time, gold was consolidating near $4355, with an intraday loss of roughly 0.57%.

The US Dollar Index edged higher intraday, hitting a peak of 100.38 and last trading at 100.30, up 0.09%. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell 2.4 bASIs points to 4.719%; the 10-year yield dropped 3.6 bASIs points to 4.96%; the 30-year yield slipped 3.2 bASIs points to 5.295%.

WTI and Brent crude oil extended their declines. WTI crude was quoted at $93.66 per barrel, down 1.84%. Brent crude stood at $97.37 per barrel, down 1.34%. US natural gas CFD traded at $3.029 per MMBtu, down 0.198%.

In equities, the three major A-share indices in China closed higher. Total turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with more than 4,500 stocks rising across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 38.04 points, or 0.97%, to 3949.91. The Shenzhen Component Index gained 89.15 points, or 0.65%, to 13730.02. The ChiNext Index added 26.91 points, or 0.8%, to 3399.59.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index strengthened and broke above 25,000 in the afternoon session. Total market turnover reached HK$202.731 billion. The Hang Seng Index closed up 291.93 points, or 1.18%, at 25042.71. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 17.79 points, or 0.4%, to 4423.29. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 114.23 points, or 1.39%, to 8339.63. The Hang Seng China Red Chip Index climbed 7.0 points, or 0.17%, to 4058.74.

Major European stock indices opened higher in the afternoon. France’s CAC40 opened +0.54%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.75%, Spain’s IBEX35 +0.48%, Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.54%, UK FTSE 100 +0.17%, Germany’s DAX30 +0.74%.

In the afternoon, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed down 0.38% at 938.3 yuan per gram. Ag(T+D) closed down 0.11% at 16040.0 yuan per kilogram.

Global forex news: The Federal Reserve and Bank of England have ramped up scrutiny, focusing on banks’ risk controls for trading firms and market makers. Major Australian banks are shifting toward hawkish expectations, forecasting the RBA may hike rates by another 50 bASIs points by year-end. The Bank of Korea has launched a pilot 24-hour offshore won settlement network to lower barriers for foreign investors. The Bank of Japan may raise rates at every other meeting, lifting the terminal rate to 2% by June 2027.

ECB President Lagarde stated that second-round inflation effects have not yet been observed and rate decisions will be made meeting by meeting. ECB Governing Council member Schnabel said the central bank must remain ready to take necessary action. Italy’s finance minister argued ECB rate hikes cannot resolve inflation. Markets expect the ECB to hike in December and deliver another 25bp increase in March 2027.

Last week, the Fed raised its policy rate target range by 25 bASIs points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023. After the hike, the 2-year US Treasury yield quickly climbed to a multi-year high near 4.75%, pricing roughly 80 bASIs points of additional tightening over the next year. Investors began re-adding short-dated US Treasuries, betting that the Fed’s new round of hikes will eventually bring inflation down. If inflation improves or actual tightening falls short of market pricing, short-end yields may decline and bond prices rebound.

Multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, including 2027 voter Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, permanent voter NY Fed President Williams, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, 2027 voter Richmond Fed President Barkin, 2026 voter Cleveland Fed President Hammack and 2026 voter Philadelphia Fed President Paulson.

As the US midterm elections enter the final phase, Republicans are rapidly converting cash reserves held by party committees and super PACs into campaign ad spending. Reports show groups supporting Republican candidates spent more than $204 million across 10 key Senate races in the first 18 days of September, $83 million more than Democratic-aligned groups.

Media analysis suggests that a sudden end to the Iran war would first hit oil prices and energy stocks. Over the past few months, crude prices have already priced in risks of Middle East supply disruption, Strait of Hormuz blockages and attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Therefore, a US-Iran deal and de-escalation would quickly erase geopolitical risk premiums and pressure the energy sector. Both WTI and Brent crude dropped to near two-month lows today.

Reports: A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry announced that at the invitation of US President Donald Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the United States from September 23 to 25. Yesterday, He Lifeng, China’s lead representative for Sino-US economic and trade talks and Vice Premier of the State Council, held economic and trade consultations in New York with US lead representatives Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Greer.

On the daily gold chart, gold pulled back for consolidation intraday but remained above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. Resistance exists near the 20-day MA. Daily indicators: MACD histogram remains small, and RSI flattens around the 50 level, indicating balanced bullish and bearish sentiment.

On the 1-hour gold chart, gold has fallen from the upper BOLLinger Band to consolidate near the lower band. Short-term EMAs EMA5 and EMA10 have formed a bearish downward crossover. The MACD negative histogram is relatively small and RSI hovers near the 47 level. Evening short-term trading outlook: gold is expected to trade within the $4330-$4400 consolidation range. A breakout to the upside would target $4408-$4415 or near $4420. Downside targets are $4320-$4310 or near $4300.

Key economic releases and events to watch tonight:

18:30 Goolsbee (Fed) delivers speech

23:20 Macklem (BoC Governor) delivers speech

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