Spot gold opened at USD 4391.12 per ounce during Thursday’s ASIan session, hitting an intraday low of USD 4381.01 per ounce. Gold trended upward amid volatility in early‑morning trade, climbing back above the USD 4400 level and reaching a high of USD 4443.72 per ounce. At press time, gold hovers near USD 4436, marking a 1.09% intraday gain.

The US Dollar Index drifted lower throughout the session, touching an intraday low of 99.17, near this week’s bottom, and last stood at 99.18, down 0.38%. The 2‑year US Treasury yield fell 0.4 bASIs points to 4.366%; the 10‑year US Treasury yield dropped 0.6 bASIs points to 4.774%.

Global crude benchmarks remained range‑bound at recent highs. WTI crude traded at USD 91.17 per barrel, up 0.75%; Brent crude stood at USD 95.77 per barrel, up 0.71%. US natural‑gas CFDs were quoted at USD 2.985 per MMBtu, down 0.467%.

In equity markets, China’s three major A‑share indices opened slightly higher then weakened, before rebounding in the afternoon. Combined turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses reached 1.75 trillion yuan, around 32.3 billion yuan lower than the same period yesterday. At close, the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.7 points or 0.02% to 3942.09; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 13.57 points or 0.1% to 13625.12; the ChiNext Index edged up 0.3 points or 0.01% to 3312.54.

Hong Kong’s two main indices opened marginally higher then drifted down. At closing, the Hang Seng Index fell 97.9 points or 0.39% to 25213.31; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 48.68 points or 1.08% to 4468.48; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 64.86 points or 0.77% to 8385.24; the Hang Seng China‑Affiliated Corporations Index gained 24.01 points or 0.58% to 4177.46.

European equity indices opened in the afternoon: Germany’s DAX 30 opened +0.04%, UK FTSE 100 +0.04%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.02%, Italy FTSE MIB +0.06%, France CAC 40 ‑0.07%, Spain IBEX 35 +0.15%.

In afternoon trade, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed up 2.27% at 957.13 yuan per gram; Ag(T+D) finished 2.7% higher at 16040.0 yuan per kilogram. Domestic retail gold‑jewellery prices rebounded more than 20 yuan per gram for multiple brands. Chow Tai Fook quoted 1329 yuan per gram for pure‑gold products, while Chow Sang Sang’s pure‑gold jewellery stood at 1327 yuan per gram.

Latest economic data releases: Switzerland August CPI MoM 0.4%, forecast 0%, prior ‑0.10%; Germany August Services PMI Final 49.7, forecast 48.5, prior 48.5; France August Services PMI Final 48, forecast 48.4, prior 48.4; Eurozone August Services PMI Final 51.6, forecast 51.7, prior 51.7.

Analysts note Germany’s services sector contracted modestly in August, weighed by tighter financial conditions, elevated costs and cautious clients, though demand and employment showed improvement. France’s services activity shrank faster amid soft demand, cost pressures and resurgent inflation concerns.

Overall Eurozone business activity expanded steadily in August with a mild deceleration in services growth. The Eurozone economy is on track for solid Q3 expansion. Industrial momentum strengthened noticeably, and services have recovered from the energy‑price shocks triggered by the early‑stage Middle‑East conflict.

China August RatingDog Services PMI printed at 51.4, up 1.0 point from July, staying in expansion territory for the 44th consecutive month with a modest pick‑up in growth. New business expanded for the 44th straight month at a faster pace than July. Employment rose for a fourth successive month, the longest expansion streak since 2023.

Market headlines: ADP data missed expectations, signalling cooling US labour markets and stalling manufacturing hiring. Fed’s Williams said yields are not driven by inflation outlooks and current interest‑rate levels remain appropriate.

ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated the ECB will hike rates next week, declining further comment on subsequent moves. A German economic institute upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 1.2% and lifted its 2027 projection from 0.8% to 1.0%. UK Prime Minister Burnham pledged fiscal stability without ruling out higher debt.

Earlier data showed US July CPI MoM at 0.1% and core CPI MoM at 0.2%, both in line with forecasts. US July PPI YoY continued to moderate, and upside risks to overall US inflation remain contained. Nevertheless, major uncertainties peRSIst over US‑Iran tensions, keeping upside risks for oil prices and US inflation alive. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its September meeting.

On US‑Iran developments: US military escorted 40 merchant vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the strait on Tuesday; only 6 ships passed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Iran’s parliament speaker stated the strait will reopen only after US commitments are fulfilled. Iran reported seizing 382 000 litres of smuggled fuel in the northern PeRSIan Gulf.

US Energy Secretary Wright said President Trump is reshaping the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Rubio said the United States will keep responding to Iranian attacks on shipping.

Gold fundamentals: According to institutional analysis, emerging‑market central banks and sovereign funds have lifted gold’s share of total reserves from 5‑7% in 2022 to 11% today, still well below the 26% average among developed‑market peers. This allocation gap leaves further room for global reserve portfolios to increase gold exposure. World Gold Council data shows gold accounts for merely 3% of financial assets held by retail and institutional investors, implying substantial scope for higher allocations.

On the daily chart, gold advanced intraday and held above the 5‑day moving average. Near‑term resistance sits near the 20‑day moving average at USD 4460. A decisive break would open targets toward USD 4500‑4530. Immediate support lies at USD 4400, followed by the 100‑day moving average around USD 4360.

On the 4‑hour chart, gold climbed intraday and trades between the middle and upper BOLLinger Bands. Short‑term EMA5 and EMA10 maintain upward bullish alignment. MACD negative histogram keeps shrinking, and RSI has moved up to around 52. Evening trading outlook: expect consolidation within USD 4395‑4460. A breakout targets USD 4470‑4480 or 4500; a breakdown points to USD 4380‑4370 or 4360.

Key upcoming data and events:

17:30 US August Challenger Job‑Cut Announcements

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims week ending Aug 29

20:30 US July Trade Balance

20:30 Fed Governor Waller interview

21:45 US August S&P Global Services PMI Final

22:00 US August ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI

22:30 US EIA Natural‑Gas Stocks week ending Aug 28

03:00 (next day) Fed’s Hammack speech

03:55 (next day) Fed’s Goolsbee speech

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