On Tuesday, the first trading day of September, gold remained under pressure and suffered a sharp pullback with markedly expanded short‑term volatility. Hawkish signals emerging from the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium quickly lifted Fed rate‑hike expectations, driving US Treasury yields higher and forming the primary headwind for gold prices. Spot gold hit an intraday low of $4322.89 per ounce and closed at $4328.28 per ounce, posting a 2.7% single‑day loss. On Wednesday, gold struggled to stage a rebound amid Fed rate‑hike bets and a stronger US dollar. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel, stoking inflation fears and reinforcing market expectations for a 25‑bASIs‑point Fed rate hike in September. During ASIan trading hours, spot gold fell to $4282.42 per ounce, marking its lowest level since August 7. At press time, it had rebounded modestly to around $4308.30 per ounce.

Fed Governor Barr stated publicly on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve should take decisive action to raise interest rates if inflation fails to ease sufficiently. He noted that if incoming data showed inflation was cooling and moving toward the 2% target, the Fed could afford more time to assess its policy stance. Barr described the labour market as stable and the economy as growing steadily, yet inflation remains excessively high, a situation that has peRSIsted for more than five years. Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at the August 28 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium was the major catalyst behind this round of gold’s decline. Warsh underscored unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target and said the Fed “has work to do” should inflation stay elevated. His hawkish stance shifted market focus beyond whether a September rate hike would occur, toward the possibility that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer and retain further policy‑tightening options until inflation clearly falls back to the 2% objective.

Deeper analysis suggests whether the Fed will raise rates this month depends heavily on economic figures released ahead of the policy meeting. The latest inflation and employment reports will give policymakers clearer insight into economic trajectories. PeRSIstently high inflation would strengthen arguments for rate hikes and place greater downward pressure on gold. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation or economic softness could shift market expectations once again and create room for gold to rebound. Geopolitical developments will also influence gold prices. During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, investors tend to turn to gold, and escalating US‑Iran tensions may boost gold demand. Yet such tensions can also lift oil prices and inflation, providing justification for further rate increases.

Short‑term gold‑market outlook: upside resistance for spot gold stands at $4475.00 per ounce, while downside support is seen at $4225.00 per ounce.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

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