The US Treasury Department released an announcement overnight, triggering sharp declines in the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. Spot gold staged a powerful rally, jumping more than $150 to hit its highest level since early June. Breaking above the key $4,500 mark, gold peaked at $4,524.38 per ounce and closed at $4,522.72 per ounce, up 4.35%. Spot silver also rallied in tandem, reaching a high of $66.948 per ounce before settling at $66.925 per ounce, a gain of 5.81%.

Spot gold opened at $4,522.34 per ounce during Thursday’s ASIan session, touching an intraday high of $4,527.06. Prices pulled back below the $4,500 psychological level in early ASIan trading to a low of $4,484.59. At press time, gold traded around $4,492 per ounce, down 0.68% intraday.

The US Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of buyback operations for long-dated Treasuries. The news sent the US Dollar Index plunging below the 99 level to a low of 98.77, closing at 98.79, down 0.86%. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell 0.8 bASIs points to 4.166%; the 10-year yield dropped 5.8 bASIs points to 4.647%; the 30-year yield slid 9.2 bASIs points to 5.193%.

Tensions peRSIst around the Strait of Hormuz. The two major global crude benchmarks consolidated sideways overnight. WTI crude closed at $84.32 per barrel, down 0.19%; Brent crude settled at $91.48 per barrel, up 0.28%. US natural gas CFDs closed at $2.79 per MMBtu, down 1.029%.

The three major US stock indices finished higher overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.71 points, or 0.22%, to 53,463.11. The S&P 500 gained 16.50 points, or 0.21%, to 7,708.26. The Nasdaq Composite added 41.38 points, or 0.16%, to 26,331.09.

Most major European equity indices closed lower. Germany’s DAX 30 fell 0.23% to 26,092.05. The UK FTSE 100 rose 0.10% to 10,738.80. France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.09% to 8,501.91. The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.40% to 6,442.45. Spain’s IBEX 35 fell 0.55% to 19,825.07. Italy’s FTSE MIB declined 0.73% to 52,633.00.

Au(T+D) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed up 2.44% at 966.97 yuan per gram, while Ag(T+D) rose 3.54% to 15,956.0 yuan per kilogram overnight. In early trading today, Au(T+D) climbed 3.11% to 973.28 yuan per gram, and Ag(T+D) jumped 5.15% to 16,204.0 yuan per kilogram.

The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings increase by 9.414 tonnes from the previous session to 1,034.654 tonnes. The world’s largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reduced holdings by 67.46 tonnes to 15,275.59 tonnes.

Today’s central parity rates in the FX market: USD/CNY 6.7808 (down 46 pips, CNY appreciation); EUR/CNY 7.8815 (up 487 pips); HKD/CNY 0.86476 (down 2.6 pips); GBP/CNY 9.1793 (up 207 pips); AUD/CNY 4.8041 (up 126 pips); CAD/CNY 4.8840 (up 182 pips); 100 JPY/CNY 4.2636 (up 191 pips); CNY/RUB 12.5119 (down 790 pips); NZD/CNY 4.0016 (up 285 pips); CNY/MYR 0.59964 (up 4.9 pips); CHF/CNY 8.4634 (up 1,300 pips); SGD/CNY 5.3128 (up 193 pips).

Weekly EIA data released overnight showed US crude oil exports rose by 1.008 million barrels per day to 4.066 million barrels per day. Domestic US crude production increased by 25,000 barrels to 13.830 million barrels per day. Commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 4.405 million barrels to 429 million barrels, a 1.04% increase.

The four-week average supply of US crude products stood at 20.475 million barrels per day, down 2.93% year-on-year. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fell by 5.268 million barrels to 293.4 million barrels, a 1.76% decline. US commercial crude imports excluding the SPR reached 6.593 million barrels per day, down 746,000 barrels per day week-on-week.

The US Treasury unexpectedly announced overnight it would at least double liquidity-support buyback operations for long-dated nominal coupon securities covering the 10–20 year and 20–30 year tenors. Each operation will increase in size by a minimum of $4 billion. The move aims to stabilise disorder in the Treasury market. Following the announcement, spot gold surged more than $150 in the short term while the US Dollar Index and long-end Treasury yields plunged.

As US government borrowing expands at a historically rapid pace, total federal debt surpassed the $40 trillion threshold overnight. Debt has grown by $3 trillion over the past twelve months, the fastest pace on record.

FOMC meeting minutes released overnight revealed a growing hawkish bloc within the Fed, with several non-voting members also leaning toward rate hikes. Many officials argued that if inflation fails to keep falling toward the 2% target, the Fed must raise interest rates to avoid larger and more costly tightening in the future, signalling deepening concern over inflation risks.

Fed Chair Warsh floated the idea of cutting the current eight policy meetings per year to six, roughly one every two months. Any such change would not take effect until 2027 at the earliest.

On the Middle East front, US President Donald Trump formally announced the US would impose the “toughest ever” economic blockade on Iran. He warned that any nation providing financial or material support to Iran would face catastrophic spillover consequences.

Naghdi, advisor to the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, described Trump’s remarks as extremely short-sighted, naive and lacking long-term vision. His statements are groundless and incoherent. He added he would rather trust a taxi driver than Trump and advised not to take his words too seriously.

For gold fundamentals: rising energy prices will amplify global inflation pressure and reinforce stagflation trades. A rapid drop in energy prices, by contrast, would cool inflation expectations. Therefore, gold’s future trajectory depends not only on US monetary policy but also on the evolving balance between energy prices and economic growth.

Weaker US Dollar and long-end Treasury yields have created upside room for dollar-denominated gold. Markets have rapidly shifted sentiment from panic bond selling to capital inflows into gold, driven by fiscal stress, geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy bargaining.

On the daily chart, gold surged yesterday and broke above the two-week consolidation range, peaking near the 200-day moving average. Prices are now above the 5-day, 10-day and 100-day moving averages and have pulled back below $4,500 for consolidation today. Daily indicators show the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a bullish crossover, MACD positive momentum continues to expand, and RSI trades near the 65 level.

On the 4-hour chart, BOLLinger Bands have widened again, with gold fluctuating near the upper band. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 maintain a bullish upward alignment. MACD positive momentum is rising, and RSI approaches overbought territory around 65. For intraday short-term trading: after the sharp rally, gold needs corrective consolidation, likely trading within $4,470–$4,515. A breakout targets $4,525–$4,530 or $4,545 to the upside, and $4,465–$4,455 or $4,445 to the downside.

Key economic data and events today:

14:00 Germany July PPI MoM

14:00 Switzerland July Trade Balance

15:00 MOFCOM Regular Press Conference

18:00 UK August CBI Industrial Orders Balance

20:30 US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 15)

20:30 US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

22:00 US July Conference Board Leading Index MoM

22:30 US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (week ending Aug 14)

23:10 Fed’s Musalem Interview

02:30 (next day) US crude oil contract rollover

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