Trump denied ongoing negotiations with Iran, and the US may reduce its military presence in the Gulf region after the war ends. Spot gold accelerated its decline during last night’s US session, hitting a low of USD 4,329.32 per ounce and settling at USD 4,334.04 per ounce, down 1.87%. Spot silver closed at USD 63.252 per ounce, dropping 3.75%.

In Wednesday’s ASIan session, spot gold opened at USD 4,335.39 per ounce, dipped to a low of USD 4,324.51 per ounce, then briefly rallied to USD 4,361.58 per ounce in the early morning. At press time, gold trades near USD 4,354, up 0.46% for the day.

The US Dollar Index traded in a narrow range yesterday, peaking at 99.69 and bottoming at 99.52, before closing at 99.65, up 0.07%. Government bond yields in multiple countries have climbed recently. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond briefly topped 5.3%, the first time since 2007. The US 10-year Treasury yield also nears its highest level since January 2025. Government bond yields across several European markets have also hit multi-year highs.

Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices rose for three consecutive trading days. WTI crude oil settled at USD 84.48 per barrel last night, up 0.45%. Brent crude closed at USD 91.22 per barrel, gaining 0.14%. US natural gas CFD settled at USD 2.819 per MMBtu, up 2.883%.

The three major US stock indexes closed lower overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 116.20 points, or 0.22%, to 53,343.58. The S&P 500 dropped 53.15 points, or 0.69%, to 7,691.91. The Nasdaq Composite lost 355.20 points, or 1.33%, to 26,289.71.

Most major European stock indexes finished lower. The German DAX 30 fell 0.91% to 26,130.75. The UK FTSE 100 edged up 0.05% to 10,725.39. The French CAC 40 declined 0.82% to 8,509.36. The EURO STOXX 50 lost 0.94% to 6,468.85. The Spanish IBEX 35 fell 0.26% to 19,929.82. The Italian FTSE MIB dropped 1.04% to 53,032.00.

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Au(T+D) closed down 0.91% at CNY 945.5 per gram, while Ag(T+D) fell 2.63% to CNY 15,576 per kilogram. In early trading today, Au(T+D) opened 1.32% lower at CNY 941.59 per gram, and Ag(T+D) was down 3.62% at CNY 15,418 per kilogram.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, decreased by 5.42 tonnes from the previous session to 1,025.24 tonnes. iShares Silver Trust, the world’s largest silver ETF, saw holdings rise by 70.27 tonnes to 15,343.05 tonnes.

Today’s central parity rates for the RMB in the foreign exchange market: USD/CNY at 6.7854, down 51 pips (RMB appreciation); EUR/CNY at 7.8328, down 50 pips; HKD/CNY at 0.86502, down 5.7 pips; GBP/CNY at 9.1586, down 99 pips; AUD/CNY at 4.7915, down 176 pips; CAD/CNY at 4.8658, down 108 pips; 100 JPY/CNY at 4.2445, down 37 pips; CNY/RUB at 12.5909, up 192 pips; NZD/CNY at 3.9731, down 211 pips; CNY/MYR at 0.59915, up 1.6 pips; CHF/CNY at 8.3334, down 168 pips; SGD/CNY at 5.2935, down 47 pips.

Latest data released overnight: US ADP private payrolls for the week ending Aug 1 rose by 9,500, compared with the prior reading of 8,250. US July annualized housing starts stood at 1.239 million units, versus an expectation of 1.35 million; the prior figure was revised down from 1.427 million to 1.415 million. US July building permits came in at 1.443 million units, beating the forecast of 1.37 million and the previous 1.374 million.

US July import price index fell 0.4% month-on-month, versus an expected 0.10% rise; the prior reading was revised from +0.30% to -0.3%. US July industrial production rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the forecast of 0.30%; the prior figure was revised up from +0.10% to +0.3%. US July pending home sales index dropped 2.3% month-on-month, compared with an expected gain of 0.3%; the prior reading was revised from -5.40% to -4.8%.

Reports indicate a broad sell-off across global bond markets, pushing up financing costs for governments, corporates and households in developed economies. Long-dated US Treasury yields have hit a 19-year high. Bond market turbulence stems from multiple drivers: inflation concerns fueled by US-Iran tensions, heavy corporate bond issuance by tech firms competing for bond fund capital, large fiscal deficits, and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy direction.

US President Donald Trump stated that no negotiations are currently underway between the US and Iran. With the US-Iran conflict ongoing for nearly half a year and few signs of diplomatic resolution, energy markets remain highly focused on developments in the Middle East.

Sources reveal US military facilities in the PeRSIan Gulf have faced sustained attacks during the conflict with Iran. The US Department of Defense is evaluating whether to withdraw troops from the PeRSIan Gulf. Any reduction in the US military footprint would directly impact Gulf nations that have long relied on US security guarantees.

The UAE announced a suspension of trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran, accusing Iran of launching two ballistic missiles toward its territory. Iran subsequently denied the attack and dismissed the allegations as baseless. Bilateral tensions have flared again, further disrupting global energy supply expectations.

Faced with risks of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Iraq’s cabinet has urgently approved new crude export regulations, planning to partner with domestic and international specialists to develop alternative export routes through Turkey and Syria. As OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, Iraq aims to reduce overreliance on PeRSIan Gulf shipping lanes.

On the daily chart, gold pulled back yesterday and erased gains from the prior two sessions yet remained within its trading range, finding support near the psychological level of USD 4,320 per ounce. Daily technical indicators show gold has retreated below the 5-day, 10-day and 100-day moving averages. MACD positive momentum is shrinking, while RSI has pulled back to around the 60 level.

On the 1-hour chart, all three BOLLinger Bands slope downward; gold has stabilized and rebounded between the middle and lower bands. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 remain in a bearish alignment and are flattening out. MACD negative momentum expansion is slowing, and RSI has recovered to roughly the 41 level. For intraday trading, expect consolidation within USD 4,320–4,385. A breakout higher targets USD 4,395–4,405 or near 4,415. A breakdown lower targets USD 4,310–4,300 or around 4,290.

Key economic data and events to watch today:

14:00 UK July CPI MoM

14:00 UK July RPI MoM

15:10 ECB President Lagarde participates in a panel discussion

16:00 Eurozone June adjusted current account

17:00 Eurozone July final CPI YoY

17:00 Eurozone July final CPI MoM

19:00 Kuaishou earnings call

22:30 US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending Aug 14

22:30 US EIA Cushing crude oil inventories for the week ending Aug 14

22:30 US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week ending Aug 14

02:00 (next day) Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes

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