Spot gold surged intraday to a high of $4,440.90 per troy ounce during last night’s U.S. trading session. Following the release of U.S. CPI data, gold pulled back from the daily peak and closed at $4,408.36, paring its gain to 0.93%. Spot silver retreated below the $66 mark and settled at $65.25, up 1.00% on the day.
Spot gold opened at $4,410.04 per troy ounce in Thursday’s ASIan session, trading in a sideways range in early trade with an intraday low of $4,398.23 and a high of $4,449.53. As of press time, gold was hovering around $4,409.
Ahead of U.S. trading last night, the U.S. Dollar Index dipped to a low of 99.61, then rebounded to a peak of 100.02 after the July CPI print, closing at 99.97 with a 0.16% gain. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1.4 bASIs points to 4.203%; the 10-year yield rose 0.6 bASIs points to 4.696%; the 30-year yield climbed 2 bASIs points to finish at 5.261%.
International crude benchmarks consolidated sideways overnight. WTI crude closed at $82.56 per barrel, down 0.95%; Brent crude settled at $88.35 per barrel, falling 0.82%. U.S. natural gas CFD ended at $2.792 per million British thermal units, rising 1.747%.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 21.69 points, or 0.04%, to 53,770.16; the S&P 500 added 20.31 points, or 0.26%, to 7,748.51; the Nasdaq Composite jumped 143.04 points, or 0.54%, to 26,588.49.
Major European equity indices all finished lower. Germany’s DAX 30 fell 0.20% to 26,341.62; the UK FTSE 100 dropped 0.07% to 10,836.64; France’s CAC 40 lost 0.46% to 8,674.94; the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.24% to 6,535.35; Spain’s IBEX 35 edged down 0.04% to 20,205.16; Italy’s FTSE MIB was flat at 53,707.00.
Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) closed 0.23% higher at 956.01 yuan per gram last night, while Ag(T+D) rose 0.23% to 15,988.0 yuan per kilogram. In early Thursday trading, Au(T+D) opened 0.64% up at 959.84 yuan/gram and Ag(T+D) gained 0.67% to 16,058.0 yuan/kilogram.
Global largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust added 3.139 tons of holdings from the previous session, with total holdings standing at 1,025.811 tons. Holdings of the world’s top silver ETF iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged at 15,313.54 tons.
Official midpoint parity rates for the RMB against major currencies set by the PBOC for Thursday: USD/CNY at 6.7888 (up 6 pips, RMB depreciation); EUR/CNY at 7.8014 (down 81 pips); HKD/CNY at 0.86518 (up 0.3 pips); GBP/CNY at 9.1355 (down 52 pips); AUD/CNY at 4.7797 (up 4 pips); CAD/CNY at 4.8526 (down 48 pips); 100JPY/CNY at 4.2508 (down 40 pips); CNY/RUB at 12.2752 (up 496 pips); NZD/CNY at 3.9652 (down 115 pips); CNY/MYR at 0.60297 (down 10.3 pips); CHF/CNY at 8.3259 (down 202 pips); SGD/CNY at 5.2882 (down 2 pips).
Latest data released overnight showed U.S. unadjusted July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, the slowest annual increase since March and in line with market expectations, versus the prior reading of 3.50%. Seasonally adjusted July CPI climbed 0.1% month-on-month, returning to positive territory and matching consensus, compared with -0.40% in June.
Seasonally adjusted core CPI increased 0.2% month-on-month in July, rebounding from the flat 0.00% print in June and aligning with forecasts. Unadjusted core CPI grew 2.5% year-on-year, the weakest pace since February and in line with expectations, down from 2.60% previously.
Tempered core inflation in July eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The CPI report indicated the energy price shock stemming from the Iran conflict continued to fade last month. As the Fed deliberates on a potential September rate hike, the data grants policymakers more leeway to balance peRSIstent inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. The U.S. Dollar Index bounced higher, Treasury yields were largely flat, and U.S. equity futures advanced following the CPI release.
Analysts noted the mild U.S. inflation print served as the direct catalyst, prompting the market to sharply trim bets on a September rate hike and boosting gold’s investment appeal. Nevertheless, simmering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, stoking renewed inflation fears that could revive tightening expectations and cap bullish momentum for gold.
The softer CPI data lifted market odds of Fed rate cuts or steady rates, while renewed inflation concerns from conflict-driven oil price gains narrowed the Fed’s policy room. These conflicting crosscurrents are likely to lend greater resilience to gold’s short-term price action.
On international headlines, U.S. President Donald Trump announced overnight that White House Press Secretary Levitt would step down at the end of this month, becoming another senior administration official to depart recently. Trump stated she would transition into a senior external advisor role for him. With midterm elections only months away, Trump loses one of his most trusted young allies.
In a new post, Trump claimed the United States has secured full control over the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Iran powerless to respond. He asserted Iran lacks functional naval and air forces, its remaining troops are unpaid, and the Revolutionary Guard has sustained heavy losses and is in retreat. He added Iran is now all rhetoric with no actionable leverage and no longer a dominant force in the Middle East.
On the daily chart, gold closed higher with a bullish candlestick and broke above the 100-day moving average yesterday, though it pulled back after peaking near $4,450. Focus falls on the support resilience around the $4,400 threshold; a firm hold here would unlock further upside, while the 200-day moving average near $4,500 acts as key overhead resistance. On daily technical indicators, the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages maintain a bullish upward slope, the MACD positive momentum histogram continues to expand, and the RSI hovers near the overbought 70 level.
On the 4-hour timeframe, gold trended upward between the middle and upper BOLLinger Bands. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 remain in a bullish alignment, yet the MACD positive momentum bars are gradually shrinking, and the RSI has retreated to the 63 level. Intraday trading strategy: expect consolidation within the $4,395–$4,440 range. A breakout above this zone targets upside at $4,450–$4,465 or near $4,480; downside support targets sit at $4,385–$4,375 or around $4,365.
Key Economic Data & Events to Watch Today:
14:00 UK Q2 GDP YoY (Preliminary)
14:00 UK June 3-month GDP MoM
14:00 UK June Manufacturing Output MoM
14:00 UK June Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance
14:00 UK June Industrial Production MoM
17:00 Eurozone June Industrial Production MoM
20:15 Fed’s Barkin delivers speech
20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ended August 8
20:30 U.S. July PPI YoY
20:30 U.S. July PPI MoM
20:40 Fed’s Barkin speaks on economic outlook
22:30 U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventories for the Week Ended August 7
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