Last Friday, the Non-Farm Payrolls data unexpectedly posted negative growth. Driven by the release, spot gold skyrocketed by $70 intraday, hitting a seven-week high of $4,371.31 per troy ounce before a partial pullback. It finally closed at $4,340.86 per troy ounce, up 2.37%; spot silver peaked at $65.061 per troy ounce and settled at $63.394 per troy ounce, gaining 3.15%.

In Monday's ASIan trading session, spot gold opened at $4,341.22 per troy ounce, reached an intraday high of $4,351.74 per troy ounce, then trended downwards to a low of $4,313.28 per troy ounce amid consolidation near the daily high. As of the press time of Sino Sound Group analysts, gold was hovering around $4,327, down 0.32%.

Last Friday's disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report dampened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's near-term interest rate hikes. The U.S. Dollar Index plunged to a low of 99.41 and closed at 99.60, down 0.34%. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board: the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 4.7 bASIs points to 4.204%, the 10-year yield shed 2.5 bASIs points to 4.658%, and the 30-year yield edged down 1.6 bASIs points to 5.21%.

International crude oil benchmarks rose briefly before reveRSIng lower. WTI crude oil closed at $77.03 per barrel, down 1.56%; Brent crude oil settled at $82.17 per barrel, falling 1.70%. U.S. natural gas CFD closed at $2.673 per million British thermal units, rising 1.596%.

U.S. three major stock indexes closed collectively higher last Friday night. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 151.42 points, or 0.28%, to 54,036.52; the S&P 500 Index climbed 47.63 points, or 0.62%, to 7,757.59; the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 342.26 points, or 1.30%, to 26,690.62.

Most major European stock indexes ended the session higher. Germany's DAX 30 Index gained 0.63% to 26,329.17; the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 0.33% to 10,903.41; France's CAC 40 Index added 0.17% to 8,714.93; the Euro Stoxx 50 Index edged up 0.34% to 6,524.65; Spain's IBEX 35 Index dipped 0.08% to 20,163.98; Italy's FTSE MIB Index inched up 0.11% to 53,742.00.

On Friday night, Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au(T+D) closed up 1.33% at RMB 938.8 per gram, and Ag(T+D) rose 1.1% to RMB 15,400.0 per kilogram. In Monday's morning session, Au(T+D) opened 1.29% higher at RMB 938.45 per gram, while Ag(T+D) gained 1.02% to RMB 15,389.0 per kilogram at the opening bell.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, increased its holdings by 2.818 tons on Friday, bringing its total holdings to 1,017.537 tons. iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, kept its holdings unchanged at 15,172.99 tons.

In Monday's foreign exchange market, the central parity rate of RMB against major currencies was set as follows: USD/CNY at 6.7884 (RMB appreciated by 20 pips), EUR/CNY at 7.8171 (up 104 pips), HKD/CNY at 0.86536 (down 2.4 pips), GBP/CNY at 9.1234 (up 71 pips), AUD/CNY at 4.7757 (up 122 pips), CAD/CNY at 4.8453 (up 121 pips), 100JPY/CNY at 4.2867 (up 76 pips), CNY/RUB at 12.1726 (down 75 pips), NZD/CNY at 3.9792 (up 43 pips), CNY/MYR at 0.60366 (up 2.3 pips), CHF/CNY at 8.3699 (up 269 pips), SGD/CNY at 5.2921 (up 137 pips).

The latest economic data released last Friday showed Canada added 75,100 jobs in July, far exceeding the market expectation of 15,000 and the previous reading of 18,200. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July, the lowest level since June 2025, below the consensus forecast of 4.2% and the prior 4.20%. U.S. seasonally adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, marking the first drop since February. Economists had expected an increase of 80,000, and the June reading was revised down from 57,000 to 20,000.

U.S. average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year-on-year in July, below the expected 3.5%, with the prior figure revised down from 3.50% to 3.4%. Month-on-month average hourly earnings grew 0.1%, versus the forecast 0.30% and the previous 0.30%. The New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation stood at 3.63% in July, lower than the 3.71% estimate and the prior 3.67%.

Canada's July employment surged beyond expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to a two-year low, the latest signal of an economic recovery. The robust jobs data indicated a sharp rebound in Canada's Q2 economy after a one-year slowdown caused by U.S. tariff impacts.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report revealed an unexpected contraction in July payrolls. As the labor force participation rate continued to slide, the jobless rate hit a two-year trough. Immediately after the release, spot gold rallied nearly $70 on the short term, and the U.S. Dollar Index tumbled 30 points, with traders sharply pricing down Fed rate hike odds. Interest rate swaps priced a 44% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting, down from 58% before the data print.

Amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the Iran conflict, the U.S. labor market may be on the verge of a slowdown. The payroll decline stemmed from layoffs in government, leisure & hospitality, and retail sectors. Private-sector employment growth was driven mainly by healthcare and social assistance, while manufacturing and construction payrolls kept expanding.

Economists widely describe the U.S. labor market as stuck in a "slow hiring, slow firing" pattern. Despite six months of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. economy appeared resilient, with domestic demand in Q2 expanding at the fastest pace in three years.

Thomas Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, commented last Friday that the labor market was in a weak equilibrium with muted hiring and layoff activities. He noted sluggish employment growth and solid corporate profits, yet warned of heightened volatility ahead. On inflation, Barkin stressed the need for restrictive monetary policy to guide inflation back to the 2% target.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated he closely monitors the falling unemployment rate and affirmed that President Trump would not interfere with Fed Chair Walsh’s interest rate decisions. Trump remarked that the Fed’s rate decisions are not fully under Walsh’s control, highlighted artificial intelligence as potentially more pivotal than oil, and claimed "whoever wins the AI race wins everything".

U.S. media reported that President Trump initiated formal proceedings to remove Fed Governor Michelle Cook over allegations of "gross dereliction of duty". Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate passed a temporary spending bill to avert a federal government shutdown.

On the U.S.-Iran front, President Trump put military strikes against Iran on hold, vowing to resolve the issue "quietly", marking a clear shift in Washington’s Iran strategy. As negotiations over the Hormuz Strait deal advanced, Iran renewed demands for sanctions relief, U.S. troop withdrawal and war reparations. The U.S. side opted to wait for economic pressure to force Tehran into concessions, reflecting repeated twists and turns in bilateral negotiations.

Negotiations between Iran and Oman on reopening shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz have yet to reach a final agreement. Analysts believe Iran’s severe economic hardships may soften its stance, though Tehran still refuses direct bilateral talks with Washington.

The U.S. side pointed out deep internal divisions within Iran’s leadership. One camp led by President Masoud Pezeshkian fears economic collapse and pushes for a deal with the U.S., while another faction headed by IRGC commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh refuses any compromises.

Roughly 8 million barrels of crude oil per day are being shipped out of the PeRSIan Gulf via the southern Hormuz Strait corridor under U.S. military coordination. Washington pledged to explore alternative oil export routes if the Strait deal collapses.

On global official gold reserves, China’s gold reserves stood at 76.08 million troy ounces (approximately 2,366.353 tons) at the end of July, up 640,000 troy ounces (around 19.91 tons) month-on-month. The People’s Bank of China has raised its gold reserves for the 21st consecutive month.

Market analysis indicated international gold prices suffered a maximum 26% pullback from the yearly peak amid shifting liquidity conditions in the past six months. Now gold has staged a powerful rebound, with spot gold peaking near the $4,370 threshold. Supported by peRSIstent central bank gold buying globally, gold may enter a short-term sideways consolidation phase, while the long-term bullish fundamental trend remains intact.

On the daily gold chart, spot gold broke above the $4,300 mark last Friday but faced resistance around the 100-day moving average and retreated afterwards, signaling strong overhead pressure in the $4,370-$4,400 resistance zone. Gold is currently stabilizing above $4,300. From technical indicators, the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages maintain a bullish alignment, MACD positive histogram bars are expanding gradually, and the RSI indicator hovers at 63 below the overbought line.

On the 4-hour gold timeframe, gold trades between the middle and upper bands of the BOLLinger Bands. The upward slope of short-term EMA5 and EMA10 has moderated, MACD maintains robust positive momentum, and RSI pulled back to near the 70 overbought level. For intraday trading strategy, expect gold to range bound between $4,300 and $4,350. A decisive breakout to the upside will target $4,370-$4,385 and then $4,400; downside support zones lie at $4,290-$4,280 and $4,265.

Key Economic Data & Events to Watch Today:

16:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index (August)

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